000 AGXX40 KNHC 230731 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 331 AM EDT TUE AUG 23 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TODAY AND IS ALREADY ENHANCING CONVECTION. OTHERWISE...A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOONS AND CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENINGS. EXPECT FRESH NE-E WINDS TO DEVELOP EACH DAY THROUGH WED ALONG THE NW COAST OF THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA BEGINNING IN THE LATE AFTERNOONS...AND ENDING BEFORE MIDNIGHT EACH NIGHT AS THE INVERTED TROUGH MOVES W-NW ACROSS THE SW GULF WATERS...ACCOMPANIED BY A ENE-ESE 15-20 KT WIND SHIFT...AND 4-5 FT SEAS. THE TROUGH WILL LOSE IDENTITY NEAR 22N94W BY LATE EACH MORNING.THE THU...FRI AND SAT EVENTS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WEAKER WITH ONLY A MODERATE WIND SHIFT EXPECTED ALONG THE TROUGH. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE N-CENTRAL GULF WILL SHIFT N OF THE AREA ON WED LEAVING A NE TO SW RIDGE AC0ROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS ON THU AND FRI. MODERATE E-SE RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING AFTERNOON PEAK HEATING OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF THROUGH WED. MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS FORECAST ELSEWHERE AROUND THE RIDGE THROUGH WED. THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO RELAX SOME ON THU INTO FRI WITH BROAD LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE S-CENTRAL GULF ON SAT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A TROPICAL LOW IS CURRENTLY NEAR 16.5N55.5W ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE. CONVECTION IS BECOMING ORGANIZED AND GUIDANCE FAVORS TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT AS THE LOW TRACKS NW ACROSS THE FAR NE CARIBBEAN PASSING NEAR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT...AND PASSING N OF PUERTO RICO ON WED...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE NE QUADRANT. STRONG NE WINDS EXPECTED ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA TONIGHT. TROPICAL CYCLONE GASTON IS EXPECTED TO PASS E OF THE AREA BUT LONG PERIOD SWELLS RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 7-10 FT WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE TROPICAL WATERS N OF 15N E OF 60W ON FRI AND SAT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. LOW-MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH TD FIONA WILL SHIFT NW ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS FROM 24-28N BETWEEN 61-68W THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH THE REMNANTS SLOWLY DISSIPATING OVER THE WATERS N OF 28N BETWEEN 68-73W THROUGH FRI. A TROPICAL LOW IS CURRENTLY SE OF THE AREA NEAR 16.5N55.5W ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE. CONVECTION IS BECOMING ORGANIZED AND GUIDANCE FAVORS TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT SOON AS THE LOW AND WAVE TRACK NW ACROSS THE FAR NE CARIBBEAN PASSING NEAR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT...AND PASSING N OF PUERTO RICO ON WED...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE NE QUADRANT. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE NE PARALLELING THE BAHAMA CHAIN THIS WEEK...AND IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO A CYCLONE REACHING NEAR THE NW BAHAMAS LATE IN THE WEEKEND. TROPICAL CYCLONE GASTON WILL PASS THROUGH THE DISCUSSION WATERS BETWEEN 55-65W BEGINNING ON FRI NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND... EVENTUALLY IMPACTING AMZ115 ON MON. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.