000 AGXX40 KNHC 221751 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 151 PM EDT MON AUG 22 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. EXPECT FRESH NE-E WINDS TO DEVELOP EACH DAY THROUGH WED ALONG THE NW COAST OF THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND END BEFORE MIDNIGHT EACH NIGHT AS THE INVERTED TROUGH MOVES W-NW ACROSS THE SW GULF WATERS... ACCOMPANIED BY A ENE-ESE 15-20 KT WIND SHIFT AND 4-5 FT SEAS. TONIGHT THE GRADIENT WILL BRIEFLY SUPPORT 20-25 KT WINDS. A HIGH OVER THE E-CENTRAL GULF WILL DRIFT NW TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA TUE...THEN SHIFT N OF THE AREA WED. MODERATE E-SE RETURN FLOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING AFTERNOON PEAK HEATING OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF THROUGH WED. MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ELSEWHERE AROUND THE RIDGE THROUGH WED. THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO RELAX SOME THU AND FRI. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL SW ATLC RIDGE AND BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER S AMERICA WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG NE-E TRADES WITH SEAS 8 TO 11 FT ACROSS THE S-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH TUE NIGHT...THEN DIMINISH WED THROUGH FRI. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXPECTED TO CROSS 55W LATE TONIGHT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE NE CARIBBEAN TUE AND WED...WITH HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO BE NORTH OF THE LOW CENTER. NE SWELL GENERATED BY A TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE ATLC WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE WATERS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES LATE FRI INTO SAT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A WEAK RIDGE AXIS IS ALONG 26N EAST OF FLORIDA. A FRONTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 27N TODAY...STALL FROM 31N69W TO 25N71W TUE...THEN DRIFT W AND DISSIPATE WED. THE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A REMNANT LOW OF TD FIONA WILL MOVE INTO THE NE WATERS WED AND THU. A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE MOVING WEST IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL CROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS WED...AND MOVE ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES AND SOUTHERN BAHAMAS THROUGH FRI WITH STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN FORECAST ZONES S OF 24N. THEREAFTER...EXPECT AN OPEN TROUGH TO SHIFT NW ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 25N BETWEEN 70-75W ON THU INTO FRI...WITH THE ENVIRONMENT POSSIBLY BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION BY DAY FRI OR SAT ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. ANOTHER TROPICAL LOW IN THE EASTERN ATLC IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND EVENTUALLY REACH FORECAST WATERS NEAR 27N55W ON SAT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.