000 AGXX40 KNHC 220657 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 257 AM EDT MON AUG 22 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOONS AND CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENINGS. EXPECT FRESH NE-E WINDS TO DEVELOP EACH DAY THROUGH WED ALONG THE NW COAST OF THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA BEGINNING IN THE LATE AFTERNOONS...AND ENDING BEFORE MIDNIGHT EACH NIGHT AS THE INVERTED TROUGH MOVES W-NW ACROSS THE SW GULF WATERS... ACCOMPANIED BY A ENE-ESE 15-20 KT WIND SHIFT...AND 4-5 FT SEAS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE TONIGHT WHEN THE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT 20- 25 KT CONDITIONS BRIEFLY. THE TROUGH WILL LOSE IDENTITY NEAR 22N94W BY LATE EACH MORNING. THE THU EVENT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WEAKER WITH ONLY A MODERATE WIND SHIFT ALONG THE TROUGH. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE E-CENTRAL GULF WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NW REACHING NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA ON TUE... THEN SHIFT N OF THE AREA ON WED LEAVING A NE TO SW RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS ON THU. MODERATE E-SE RETURN FLOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING AFTERNOON PEAK HEATING OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF THROUGH WED. MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ELSEWHERE AROUND THE RIDGE THROUGH WED. THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO RELAX SOME ON THU INTO FRI. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 78W WILL MOVE W THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH TUE NIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL SW ATLC RIDGE AND BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER S AMERICA WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG NE-E TRADES...WITH SEAS 8 TO 12 FT...ACROSS THE S-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED. HIGHEST SEAS EXPECTED NEAR 12N77W THIS MORNING. AN ILL-DEFINED TROPICAL LOW IS CURRENTLY NEAR 14.5N47W ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE. THIS SYSTEM WILL REACH ALONG 55W LATE TONIGHT AND PASS W-NW THROUGH THE TROPICAL WATERS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES ON TUE INTO EARLY WED WHEN IT WILL REACH THE VIRGIN ISLAND AREA. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE ENVIRONMENT MAY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IN 3-5 DAYS. THE GRIDS CURRENTLY DEPICT AN AREA OF STRONG E-SE WINDS SHIFTING ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS N OF 16N BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUE NIGHT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A SURFACE HIGH NEAR 27N72W IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT W-NW TO OVER THE NW BAHAMAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EXTEND A RIDGE E ALONG 27N TO NEAR 27N68W. A WEAK COLD FRONT...OR TROUGH...WILL SWEEP E ACROSS THE WATERS N OF THE 27N TODAY...AND STALL FROM 31N68W TO 25N71W ON TUE...THEN BEGIN TO DRIFT W ON TUE NIGHT AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE ON WED. STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH TD FIONA WILL SHIFT NW ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS BETWEEN 55-65W TODAY THROUGH TUE...WITH THE REMNANT LOW AND ASSOCIATED STRONG CYCLONIC WINDS MOVING INTO FAR NE CORNER OF AMZ121...AND THE FAR SE CORNER OF AMZ115 LATE TUE...AND CONTINUING N-NW ACROSS AMZ015 THROUGH THU NIGHT WHILE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING. STRONG SE WINDS...AND SEAS TO 9 FT...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE TROPICS ALONG 48W...WILL SHIFT NW ACROSS AMZ127 ON TUE NIGHT AND WED REACHING THE E PORTION OF AMZ121 AND AMZ125W ON WED NIGHT. THEREAFTER...EXPECT AN OPEN TROUGH TO SHIFT NW ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 25N BETWEEN 70-75W ON THU INTO FRI...WITH THE ENVIRONMENT POSSIBLY BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ON DAY 3-5...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. ANOTHER TROPICAL SYSTEM CURRENTLY IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLC IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND EVENTUALLY REACH THE DISCUSSION WATERS NEAR 27N55W ON SAT. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION STILL REMAINS DISORGANIZED...GUIDANCE AGREES THAT GALE FORCE CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WITH 48 HOURS...AND THUS A GALE WILL BE INTRODUCED INTO THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST AT 48 HOURS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.