000
AGXX40 KNHC 211800
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK HIGH CENTERED NEAR TAMPA BAY EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT NW TOWARDS THE
MISSISSIPPI DELTA THROUGH TUE...THEN DRIFT N OF THE AREA WED.
EXPECT GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS AND 2-4 SEAS TO
CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE SW GULF. A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE NW
COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND ACROSS THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE
WILL SUPPORT STRONG NE TO E WINDS TONIGHT AND MON NIGHT...WITH
FRESH CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 73W WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN THROUGH TUE NIGHT. STRONG TRADES IN THE S
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL DIMINISH TUE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT N
OF THE AREA WEAKENS. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING WEST
WITH A TROPICAL WAVE CENTERED NEAR 13N43W WILL REACH THE LESSER
ANTILLES LATE TUE EARLY WED. HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BE N OF THE CENTER.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS LESS AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING THIS LOW BUT
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS MAY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IN 3 TO 5 DAYS NEAR THE BAHAMAS. GRIDS SHOW
FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS SHIFTING ACROSS TROPICAL WATERS FROM 15-
18N TUE THROUGH WED.
   
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK RIDGE AXIS WILL PERSIST ALONG 26N THROUGH MON NIGHT. A
FRONTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 27N
MON...STALL FROM 31N69W TO 25N71W TUE...THEN DRIFT SLOWLY W WED
AND THU. TS FIONA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN E OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH TUE NIGHT AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN...MOVE INTO THE NE WATERS
NEAR 28N65 WED AS A REMNANT LOW...THEN DISSIPATE THROUGH THU.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
ALONG 43W WILL MOVE PAST THE VIRGIN ISLANDS WED AND REACH PUERTO
RICO WED NIGHT THEN TURN N-NW AND BRUSH PAST THE BAHAMAS THU AND
FRI. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS MAY BE
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AFTER IT REACHES THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. 

ANOTHER TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLC IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE BUT REMAIN E OF FORECAST WATERS. 

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.