000 AGXX40 KNHC 210549 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 149 AM EDT SUN AUG 21 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOONS AND CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENINGS. EXPECT FRESH NE-E WINDS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE NW COAST OF THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA BEGINNING IN THE LATE AFTERNOONS...AND ENDING BEFORE MIDNIGHT EACH NIGHT AS THE INVERTED TROUGH MOVES W-NW ACROSS THE SW GULF WATERS...ACCOMPANIED BY A ENE-ESE 15-20 KT WIND SHIFT...AND 4-5 FT SEAS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON MON NIGHT WHEN THE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT 20-25 KT CONDITIONS. THE TROUGH WILL LOSE IDENTITY NEAR 22N94W BY LATE EACH MORNING. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE E-CENTRAL GULF WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NW REACHING NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA ON TUE... THEN SHIFT N OF THE AREA ON WED AND THU LEAVING AN E TO W RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS. MODERATE E-SE RETURN FLOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING AFTERNOON PEAK HEATING OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF. MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ELSEWHERE AROUND THE RIDGE THROUGH THU. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 72W WILL RACE W THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TODAY AND PASS THROUGH THE ON MON THROUGH TUE NIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL SW ATLC RIDGE AND BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER S AMERICA WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG NE-E TRADES...WITH SEAS TO 11 FT...ACROSS THE S- CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED. EXPECT THESE NE WINDS TO PULSE TO NEAR GALE AT 30 KT JUST OFF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA TONIGHT... AND AGAIN ON MON NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO ABOUT 12 FT DOWNSTREAM NEAR 12N76W. A TROPICAL LOW CURRENTLY NEAR 12N40W WILL PASS THROUGH THE TROPICAL WATERS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES ON TUE. THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IN 3-5 DAYS. THE GRIDS CURRENTLY DEPICT STRONG E WINDS SHIFTING ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS FROM 15-18N TUE AND TUE NIGHT...AND STRONG SE WINDS SHIFTING THROUGH THE VIRGIN ISLAND AREA ON WED. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A SURFACE HIGH NEAR 24N68W IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NW TO OVER THE NW BAHAMAS THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN WEAKEN. A WEAK COLD FRONT...OR TROUGH...WILL SWEEP E ACROSS THE WATERS N OF THE 27N ON MON...AND STALL FROM 31N69W TO 25N71W ON TUE....THEN BEGIN TO DRIFT W ON TUE NIGHT. STRONG W WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH TS FIONA WILL EFFECT THE NE CORNER OF AMZ127 LATER TODAY. FIONA WILL WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS NNW...AND LATER TURNING N THROUGH THE DISCUSSION WATERS BETWEEN 55-65W ON SUN NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WED...WITH THE REMNANT LOW MOVING INTO EASTERN PORTION OF AMZ115 LATE WED. THE NEXT TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL BE NE MOVING WNW ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN INTO THE ATLC WATERS S OF 23N BETWEEN 58-70W ON WED AND WED NIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY AT LEAST E-SE 20-25 KT WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING TO ABOUT 10 FT...WITH STRONGEST CONDITIONS MAINLY OVER THE NE SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW. THIS SECOND SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ON DAY 3-5. ANOTHER TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLC IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND EVENTUALLY REACH THE DISCUSSION WATERS NEAR 30N55W NEXT WEEKEND. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.