000 AGXX40 KNHC 201750 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 150 PM EDT SAT AUG 20 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING EACH DAY THROUGH THU. EXPECT RESULTANT FRESH NE-E WINDS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE NW COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH NIGHT AS THE INVERTED TROUGH MOVES W-NW ACROSS THE SW GULF WATERS...ACCOMPANIED BY A ENE-ESE 15-20 KT WIND SHIFT...AND 4-5 FT SEAS. THE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTER SUN AND MON NIGHT...TO SUPPORT 20-25 KT CONDITIONS. THE TROUGH WILL LOSE IDENTITY NEAR 22N94W BY EACH MORNING. OTHERWISE...A WEAK RIDGE AXIS ROUGHLY ALONG 27N WILL MAINTAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF THROUGH THU. MODERATE E-SE RETURN FLOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING AFTERNOON PEAK HEATING OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF. MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ELSEWHERE AROUND THE RIDGE. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 85W OVER CENTRAL AMERICA WILL COMPLETELY EXIT THE REMAINDER OF NW CARIBBEAN BY LATE TONIGHT. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 68W WILL REACH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SUN AND MOVE INTO CENTRAL AMERICA MON NIGHT AND TUE. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE A COUPLE MORE DAYS WITH MAX SEAS TO 11 FT...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH MON THROUGH THU. EXPECT NE WINDS TO PULSE TO NEAR GALE AT 30 KT JUST OFF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA TONIGHT. A TROPICAL LOW IN THE E ATLC WILL CROSS INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLANTIC TUE AND CONTINUE W ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES WED TO REACH THE E CARIBBEAN BY WED NIGHT. GFS MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES IT COULD MAY INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN ABOUT 3-4 DAYS BY IT MOVES N OF THE AREA BUT OTHER GLOBAL MODELS KEEP THE SYSTEM A LITTLE WEAKER AS A TROUGH OR OPEN WAVE. IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT SUN AND MON. GRIDS REFLECT FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS SHIFTING W ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS FROM 14N-19N TUE THROUGH THU. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. TROPICAL STORM FIONA IS WEAKENING EAST OF 50W...AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. A NARROW RIDGE AXIS ALONG 27N WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD AND WEAKEN SUN THROUGH MON AS A TROUGH MOVES E ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 27N. THE TROUGH WILL STALL FROM 31N68W TO THE BAHAMAS TUE... THEN DRIFT WESTWARD AND WEAKEN WED. THIS WILL ALLOW A BENIGN WEATHER REGIME WITH LIGHT WINDS TO PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MON NIGHT. NE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN WEST OF THE TROUGH AXIS TUE AND WED. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...A TROPICAL LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR 11N36W WILL MOVE PAST THE LESSER ANTILLES INTO SE WATERS WED. EXPECT HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM TO BE IN THE NORTHERN SEMI- CIRCLE OF THE LOW. GFS MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES IT COULD DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE BY IT REACHES THE AREA BUT OTHER GLOBAL MODELS KEEP THE SYSTEM A LITTLE WEAKER AS A TROUGH OR OPEN WAVE. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.