000 AGXX40 KNHC 190640 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 240 AM EDT FRI AUG 19 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOONS AND CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENINGS. EXPECT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE-E WINDS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE NW COAST OF THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA BEGINNING IN THE LATE AFTERNOONS...AND ENDING BEFORE MIDNIGHT EACH NIGHT AS THE INVERTED TROUGH MOVES W-NW ACROSS THE SW GULF WATERS...ACCOMPANIED BY A ENE-ESE 20-25 KT WIND SHIFT...AND 4-5 FT SEAS.THE TROUGH WILL LOSE IDENTITY NEAR 22N94W BY LATE EACH MORNING.THE STRONGEST EVENTS ARE EXPECTED ON SAT AND MON EVENINGS. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NE GULF WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SE TO A POSITION JUST W OF TAMPA BAY ON SAT NIGHT...THEN SHIFT SLOWLY W REACHING A POSITION JUST S OF THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA ON TUE...ALL THE WHILE EXTENDING A SURFACE TROUGH NW ACROSS THE NW COASTAL PLAINS. MODERATE E-SE RETURN FLOW EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF...WITH MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ELSEWHERE AROUND THE RIDGE THROUGH TUE. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 75W WILL PASS THROUGH THE W CARIBBEAN THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT OF CONVECTION. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE WINDWARDS TODAY...AND CONTINUE W THROUGH THE E CARIBBEAN THROUGH SAT NIGHT REACHING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN LATE IN THE WEEKEND ACCOMPANIED BY ISOLATED TSTMS. STRONG E WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BRIEFLY LATE SAT NIGHT ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS. OTHERWISE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL SW ATLC RIDGE AND BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER S AMERICA WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG NE-E TRADES...WITH SEAS TO 12 FT...ACROSS THE S-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH TUE. EXPECT NE WINDS TO PULSE TO NEAR GALE AT 30 KT JUST OFF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON MON NIGHT. MODERATE TRADES ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. A TROPICAL LOW CURRENTLY WELL E OF THE AREA NEAR 10N29W WILL CONTINUE W REACHING NEAR 11N55W ON TUE. THIS LOW WILL ENCOUNTER MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IN 3TO 5 DAYS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A LOW LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NE WATERS WILL MOVE E SLOWLY E TODAY AND SAT AND FILL BY SUN. A NE TO SW RIDGE ACROSS THE NW WATERS WILL SHIFT SE IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH WITH A SURFACE HIGH DEVELOPING NEAR 26N70W ON SAT NIGHT WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING W TO CENTRAL FL. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT S TO ALONG 26N ON MON ALLOWING A WEAK COLD FRONT...OR TROUGH...TO SWEEP E ACROSS THE WATERS N OF THE 27N. THE RIDGE WILL REORIENTATE AND EXTEND FROM W TO E FROM 27N80W TO 26N70W ON TUE. TS FIONA WILL REMAIN E OF THE OFFSHORE ZONES BUT WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS N THROUGH THE DISCUSSION WATERS BETWEEN 55-60W ON MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.