000
AGXX40 KNHC 181743
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
143 PM EDT THU AUG 18 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA TO NORTHEAST TEXAS
WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD AND REACH FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA AND REACH FROM TO
THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA COAST THROUGH THE MONDAY. MODERATE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
GULF...WITH MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF
THROUGH MONDAY. AN EXCEPTION WILL BE THE EAST BAY OF CAMPECHE
WHERE A TROUGH WILL INDUCE A PULSE OF MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS
EACH NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. ON TUESDAY...MODELS ARE FORECASTING
FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF FROM THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A TROPICAL WAVE SOUTH OF THE MONA PASSAGE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THU AND ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN FRI
AND SAT. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE PASSING W OF 55W WILL REACH THE
CARIBBEAN FRI...THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SAT...AND ACROSS THE W
CARIBBEAN SUN AND MON. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL PERSIST NORTH OF
THE AREA. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE...THE TROPICAL WAVES AND
LOW PRES OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH MON
NIGHT AND REACH NEAR GALE FORCE ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA
DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH FRI NIGHT. FRESH
TO STRONG TRADES WILL AFFECT THE GULF OF HONDURAS TONIGHT. THE
MAIN EFFECTS OF T.S. FIONA WILL REMAIN E THEN NE OF THE AREA.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A RIDGE AXIS REACHING FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO THE GEORGIA COAST WILL
SHIFT SOUTHWARD ALONG 28N FRIDAY...REMAINING THERE THROUGH
MONDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS
AND 3 TO 5 FT SEAS. MAINLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH EASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL S OF 24N. WINDS NEAR THE
NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA WILL OCCASIONALLY PULSE TO 20 KT EACH
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 65W WILL
SUPPORT CONVECTION AS IT DRIFTS NORTH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.