000 AGXX40 KNHC 180746 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 346 AM EDT THU AUG 18 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA TO NORTHEAST TEXAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TODAY. THEN...THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE AXIS WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA AND BECOME ORIENTED FROM THERE TO THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA COAST THROUGH THE MONDAY. MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF...WITH MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH MONDAY. AN EXCEPTION WILL BE THE EAST BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE A THERMAL TROUGH WILL INDUCE A PULSE OF MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS EACH NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. ON TUESDAY...MODELS ARE FORECASTING FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF FROM THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA AND LOWER PRESSURE IN SOUTH AMERICA WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG EAST TO NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. PEAK WINDS WILL BE OVERNIGHT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...WHERE NEAR GALE WINDS ARE FORECAST EACH NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MODERATE TRADES ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IN THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC WILL CROSS 55W TONIGHT...THE WINDWARDS AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SATURDAY. TROPICAL STORM FIONA OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE CYCLONE AND THE EFFECTS FROM THE CYCLONE ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN EAST THEN NORTHEAST OF THE ZONES OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A RIDGE AXIS FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO THE GEORGIA COAST WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH TODAY...THEN SHIFT SOUTHWARD ALONG 28N FRIDAY...THEN SHIFT FARTHER SOUTH TO ALONG 26N BY SUNDAY. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL SUPPORT MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS N OF 27N WITH 3 TO 4 FT SEAS...AND MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS S OF 27N WITH 4 TO 5 FT SEAS EAST OF BAHAMAS THROUGH TODAY. ONCE THE RIDGE BECOMES ORIENTED ALONG 28N THEN TO 26N...WINDS N OF 25N WILL BE LIGHT TO GENTLE FROM 24N TO 29N AND MODERATE N OF 29N. MAINLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL S OF 24N. WINDS NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA WILL OCCASIONALLY PULSE TO 20 KT EACH NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 65W WILL SUPPORT CONVECTION AS IT DRIFTS NORTH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LATTO. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.