000
AGXX40 KNHC 171746
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
146 PM EDT WED AUG 17 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A RIDGE AXIS REACHING EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS THROUGH LATE
WEEK THEN REMAIN STATIONARY FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE NORTH
TEXAS COAST. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL FORM OVER THE WEST COAST OF
YUCATAN EACH EVENING AND DRIFT ACROSS THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE...SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWEST GULF INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THEN DIMINISHING THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE TROUGH DISSIPATES. ELSEWHERE LIGHT
TO MODERATE WINDS WITH GENERALLY 3 TO 5 FT SEAS WILL PERSIST. DEEP
MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN
GULF THROUGH LATE WEEK.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA AND LOWER PRESSURE IN
SOUTH AMERICA WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG EAST TO NORTHEAST
TRADE WINDS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH MON. EXPECT
WINDS TO 30 KT OFF COLOMBIA EACH NIGHT...AND 20 TO 25 IN THE GULF
OF VENEZUELA. MODERATE TRADES ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. THE STRONG
WINDS WILL BE GOVERNED IN PART BY THE PASSAGE OF A COUPLE OF
TROPICAL WAVES. A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE BASIN BY SAT. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY
LOCATED WELL TO THE EAST WILL PASS 55W THU...ENTER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN FRI...PASS THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SAT
BEFORE EXITING THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC IS FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND MOVE NORTHWESTWARD THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE CYCLONE AND THE
EFFECTS FROM THE CYCLONE ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN EAST
REGION OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A RIDGE AXIS REACHING FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO THE GEORGIA COAST WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN SHIFT SOUTHWARD
ALONG 28N FRIDAY...REMAINING THERE THROUGH MONDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL
MAINTAIN MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND 3 TO 5 FT SEAS. WINDS
NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA WILL OCCASIONALLY PULSE TO
20 KT EACH NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF
A TROPICAL WAVE WILL CROSS 65W TONIGHT...SPREADING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN FORECAST WATERS
THROUGH FRIDAY.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC IS FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND MOVE NORTHWESTWARD THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE CYCLONE AND THE
EFFECTS FROM THE CYCLONE ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN EAST
REGION OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.