000 AGXX40 KNHC 170740 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 340 AM EDT WED AUG 17 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA TO NORTHEAST TEXAS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THURSDAY. LATER THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE AXIS WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA AND BECOME ORIENTED FROM THERE TO NORTHEAST TEXAS. MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF...WITH MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN EXCEPTION WILL BE THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE A THERMAL TROUGH WILL INDUCE A PULSE OF MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS EACH NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. DEEP MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE GULF TODAY. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA AND LOWER PRESSURE IN SOUTH AMERICA WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG EAST TO NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH FRESH WINDS JUST S OF HISPANIOLA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. PEAK WINDS WILL BE OVERNIGHT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...WHERE NEAR GALE WINDS ARE FORECAST EACH NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS OVER THE GULF OF VENEZUELA WILL BRIEFLY APPROACH 30 KT THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS. WINDS WILL PULSE ABOVE 20 KT IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS TONIGHT. MODERATE TRADES ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE WESTWARD AND REACH CENTRAL AMERICA TONIGHT. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IN THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC WILL CROSS THE WINDWARDS TODAY AND MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TONIGHT...THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THURSDAY NIGHT...AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO A TROPICAL STORM AND MOVE NORTHWESTWARD THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE CYCLONE AND THE EFFECTS FROM THE CYCLONE ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN EAST THEN NORTHEAST OF THE ZONES OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A RIDGE AXIS FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO THE GEORGIA COAST WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN SHIFT SOUTHWARD ALONG 28N FRIDAY...REMAINING THERE THROUGH MONDAY. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL SUPPORT MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS N OF 27N WITH 3 TO 4 FT SEAS...AND MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS S OF 27N WITH 4 TO 5 FT SEAS EAST OF BAHAMAS THROUGH THURSDAY. ONCE THE RIDGE BECOMES ORIENTED ALONG 28N...WINDS N OF 25N WILL BE LIGHT TO GENTLE FROM 24N TO 29N AND MODERATE N OF 29N. MAINLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL S OF 24N. WINDS NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA WILL OCCASIONALLY PULSE TO 20 KT EACH NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF A TROPICAL WAVE WILL CROSS 65W TONIGHT...SPREADING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN FORECAST WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LATTO. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.