000
AGXX40 KNHC 161800
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM N FLORIDA TO NE TEXAS WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THU. LATER THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE AXIS WILL DRIFT
SOUTHWARD OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA TO WESTWARD INTO NE TEXAS.
MODERATE E-SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
GULF...WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN EXCEPTION WILL BE THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE
WHERE A THERMAL TROUGH WILL INDUCE A PULSE OF MODERATE TO FRESH
WINDS EACH NIGHT WED THROUGH SAT.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE N OF THE AREA AND LOWER PRESSURE IN SOUTH
AMERICA WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG EAST TO NORTHEAST TRADE
WINDS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH
FRESH WINDS JUST S OF HISPANIOLA THROUGH WED NIGHT. PEAK WINDS
WILL BE OVERNIGHT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...WHERE NEAR GALE
WINDS ARE FORECAST EACH NIGHT THROUGH WED. WINDS OVER THE GULF
OF VENEZUELA WILL BRIEFLY APPROACH 30 KT THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS.
WINDS WILL BRIEFLY PULSE ABOVE 20 KT IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS THE
NEXT TWO NIGHTS. MODERATE TRADES ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE W AND REACH
CENTRAL AMERICA WED NIGHT. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IN THE TROPICAL
N ATLANTIC WILL CROSS THE WINDWARDS WED AND MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS
CARIBBEAN THROUGH SAT. A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE E ATLANTIC
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD REMAIN E OF
50W...AND NOT AFFECT THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEK.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A RIDGE AXIS FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO THE GEORGIA COAST WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THU...THEN SHIFT SOUTHWARD ALONG 28N
FRI. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL SUPPORT GENTLE TO MODERATE E-SE
WINDS N OF 27N WITH 3-4 FT SEAS...AND MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS S
OF 27N WITH 4-5 FT SEAS E OF BAHAMAS THROUGH THU. WINDS NEAR THE
NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA WILL OCCASIONALLY PULSE TO 20 KT
THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS. THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF A TROPICAL WAVE
WILL CROSS 60W TONIGHT...AND SPREAD SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN FORECAST WATERS THROUGH SAT.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.