000 AGXX40 KNHC 160621 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 221 AM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA TO NORTHEASTERN TEXAS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THURSDAY. LATE THIS WEEK AND OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE AXIS WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA AND BECOME REPOSITIONED FROM THERE TO NORTHEASTERN TEXAS. MAINLY MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF...AND GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE TONIGHT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED...ASSOCIATED WITH A THERMAL TROUGH. THESE WINDS ARE THEN FORECAST TO PULSE TO MODERATE TO FRESH EACH NIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER LOW WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY W OF 86W THROUGH TONIGHT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE N OF THE AREA AND LOWER PRESSURE IN SOUTH AMERICA WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG EAST TO NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ALSO JUST SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PEAK WINDS WILL BE OVERNIGHT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...WHERE NEAR GALE WINDS ARE FORECAST EACH NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS OVER THE GULF OF VENEZUELA WILL BRIEFLY REACH 30 KT THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS. AND...WINDS WILL BRIEFLY PULSE ABOVE 20 KT OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS. MODERATE TRADES ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG 68W WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TODAY...THEN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH ALONG 55W OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC TONIGHT...THE LESSER ANTILLES WEDNESDAY...THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A RIDGE AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO THE GEORGIA COAST WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE RIDGE WILL THEN BECOME ORIENTED ALONG 28N FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL SUPPORT GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS NORTH OF 27N WITH SEAS OF 3 TO 4 FEET...AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY WINDS SOUTH OF 27N WITH 4 TO 5 FT SEAS EAST OF THE BAHAMAS THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA WILL PULSE TO STRONG THE NEXT TWO AFTERNOONS THROUGH EARLY MORNINGS. A SURFACE TROUGH...THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF A TROPICAL WAVE...WILL CROSS 60W S OF 27N ON WEDNESDAY AND 65W ON THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ONCE THE RIDGE BECOMES ORIENTED ALONG 28N LATER THIS WEEK...MAINLY LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL NORTH OF 25N WITH MODERATE WINDS SOUTH OF 25N. SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FT ARE EXPECTED N OF 25N FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH 3 TO 4 FT SEAS S OF 25N EAST OF THE BAHAMAS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LATTO. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.