000
AGXX40 KNHC 141820
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
220 PM EDT SUN AUG 14 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER LOUISIANA
HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF W OF 88W. A WEAK RIDGE
EXTENDS ACROSS THE N GULF COAST...AND WILL PREVAIL IN THIS AREA
THROUGH WED. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING
EACH AFTERNOON NEAR TEXAS IN THE W GULF MON THROUGH WED. THE
MOIST AIR MASS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WILL SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM OUTLOOK. EXPECT SEAS TO
REMAIN GENERALLY 3-5 FT ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH FRI.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW
CONTINUE ACROSS PART OF THE NW CARIBBEAN...N OF 18N W OF 92W.
EXPECT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW
LIFTS NORTH. A TROPICAL WAVE PASSING OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE E CARIBBEAN THROUGH MON NIGHT...THEN CROSS
THE W CARIBBEAN TUE THROUGH WED NIGHT. A STRONGER TROPICAL WAVE
WITH EXTENSIVE DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED BY TPW IS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE WINDWARDS AROUND WED. THE TYPICAL PATTERN OF FRESH TO
STRONG TRADES IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE WEST-CENTRAL ATLC EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH FRI. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS MAXIMUM EXTENT OF 20-30 KT
WINDS TUE MORNING.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROUGH FROM 31N70W TO 28N72W WILL
DRIFT WEST AND DISSIPATE THROUGH TUE. A MODERATE HIGH PRES RIDGE
WILL EXTEND NORTH OF THE AREA...FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO THE GEORGIA
COAST THROUGH THU...THEN WEAKEN FRI. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED
IN THE LONG TERM OUTLOOK. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW... WITH FRESH E
TRADE WINDS OVER SOUTHERN WATERS AND MODERATE E-SE WINDS OVER
NORTHERN WATERS...WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. SEAS WILL
REMAIN 3-6 FT THROUGH FRI.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.