000
AGXX40 KNHC 131730
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
130 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL
AND NW GULF ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW OVER LOUISIANA ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT THEN BECOME LESS EXTENSIVE SUN AND MON AS
THE LOW WEAKENS AND SHIFTS NORTHWARD. IN ITS PLACE A WEAK ATLANTIC
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH TUE. THIS WILL ALLOW E
TO SE WINDS TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WINDS
WILL BE GENERALLY 10-15 KT AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 3-4 FT. IN
THE EXTENDED OUTLOOK...LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TWO DISTINCT AREAS OF ACTIVE CONVECTION
TODAY...SOUTH OF CUBA TO 16.5N BETWEEN 78W AND 84W ASSOCIATED WITH
DIVERGENCE ALOFT SW OF AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 24N79W...AND
SOUTH OF THE MONA PASSAGE TO 15N BETWEEN 67W AND 70W ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER LOW IS MOVING
WEST AND IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE NW
CARIBBEAN THROUGH SUN. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 52W WILL REACH THE
TROPICAL N ATLC THIS EVENING AND MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN SUN.
FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WILL RETURN TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUN
BETWEEN 70W-80W AND CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL DAYS AT 20-25 KT WITH
8-10 FT SEAS EXPECTED. MODERATE TRADES ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. IN
THE EXTENDED OUTLOOK...THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 52W WILL REACH
CENTRAL AMERICA AROUND TUE OR WED. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IN THE
E ATLC APPEARING MORE VIGOROUS IN THE GLOBAL MODELS...IS EXPECTED
TO REACH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WED. LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM BERMUDA TO NE FLORIDA WILL DRIFT
SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH TUE. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT GENTLE
WINDS N OF 27N THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAY WITH 2-4 FT SEAS...AND
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER WATERS S OF 27N WITH 3-5 FT
SEAS. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES WINDS WILL PULSE TO 20-25 KT NEAR
THE NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA TONIGHT. AN UPPER LOW CENTERED
NEAR ANDROS ISLAND WILL ENHANCE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE SW PART
OF THE BAHAMAS TONIGHT. IN THE EXTENDED OUTLOOK...LITTLE CHANGE
IS EXPECTED.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.