000 AGXX40 KNHC 130720 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 320 AM EDT SAT AUG 13 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: WEIGHTED GLOBAL MODEL BLEND. A SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH INLAND OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST COMBINED WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN GULF THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS TROUGH AND LOW ARE FORECAST TO FINALLY MOVE NORTHWARD AND AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM SOUTH FLORIDA TO NEAR VERACRUZ MEXICO SHIFTS NORTHWARD TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND JUST INLAND OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. DEEP MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CURRENTLY BETWEEN THE RIDGE AXIS AND LOW PRESSURE INLAND OVER TEXAS WILL SUPPORT FRESH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF THROUGH SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...A THERMAL TROUGH MOVING OFF THE WESTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH EVENING WILL SUPPORT FRESH WINDS OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE EACH NIGHT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. OTHERWISE...AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS NORTH TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...GENERALLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL COVER THE GULF BASIN GENERATING SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: WEIGHTED GLOBAL MODEL BLEND. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 86W/87W AND AN UPPER LOW OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS SUPPORTS CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. ALTHOUGH THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA TODAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL MEANDER OVER THE REGION WHILE INTERACTING WITH A VERY MOIST AIRMASS TO SUPPORT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL MOVE WESTWARD TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TODAY BEFORE DISSIPATING SUNDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH TONIGHT. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES COVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AS A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC CROSSES THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUNDAY...AND RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUNDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH MAINLY MODERATE TRADES PREVAILING ELSEWHERE. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: WEIGHTED GLOBAL MODEL BLEND. A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS OVER THE EASTERN ZONES WILL MEANDER WESTWARD THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO BERMUDA WILL DRIFT NORTH THROUGH MONDAY AND EXTEND FROM NORTHEAST FLORIDA/GEORGIA TO BERMUDA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT MAINLY GENTLE WINDS NORTH OF 27N OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT. SOUTH OF 27N MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EAST TO SOUTHEAST TRADES WILL PREVAIL. WINDS WILL PULSE TO STRONG ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA FROM THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS EACH NIGHT DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. EARLY NEXT WEEK THE TROUGH NEAR 29N60W THAT WAS FORMERLY A STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AND RIDGING WILL FILL IN ALONG 32N/33N ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT MAINLY MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW N OF 27N...AND MODERATE TO FRESH EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW S OF 27N WITH SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC WATERS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LATTO. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.