000 AGXX40 KNHC 120659 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 259 AM EDT FRI AUG 12 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS USED WEIGHTED GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FOR SEAS USED WW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR FIRST 3 DAYS...THEN WEIGHTED GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS AFTER DAY 3. A SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH INLAND OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST COMBINED WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN GULF THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM NEAR SOUTH FLORIDA TO NORTHEASTERN MEXICO WILL SHIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE INLAND OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. THE CURRENT RIDGE PATTERN SUPPORTS MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN GULF...LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF...AND MAINLY MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AXIS AND LOW PRESSURE INLAND OVER TEXAS WILL SUPPORT FRESH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF THROUGH SUNDAY. ONCE THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS NORTH AND INLAND OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK...GENERALLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL COVER THE GULF BASIN GENERATING SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS USED WEIGHTED GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FOR SEAS USED WW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR FIRST 3 DAYS...THEN WEIGHTED GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS AFTER DAY 3. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 81W/82W SUPPORTS CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON CONTINUING THIS CONVECTION AND SPREADING IT WESTWARD OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN TODAY AND TONIGHT. A SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL MOVE WESTWARD TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY SATURDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING BY SUNDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH SATURDAY. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES COVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AS A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC CROSSES THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUNDAY...AND RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC FILLS IN THE WAKE OF A DISSIPATED FRONTAL SYSTEM. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH MAINLY MODERATE TRADES PREVAILING ELSEWHERE NEXT WEEK. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS USED WEIGHTED GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FOR SEAS USED WW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR FIRST 3 DAYS...THEN WEIGHTED GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS AFTER DAY 3. A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES WILL DISSIPATE INTO A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY FROM NORTHEAST FLORIDA TO BERMUDA WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT MAINLY GENTLE WINDS NORTH OF 27N...EXCEPT MODERATE NORTH OF THE DISSIPATING FRONT. SEAS OF 3 TO 4 FT ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL OVER THE WEEKEND N OF 27N. SOUTH OF 27N MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EAST TO SOUTHEAST TRADES ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL PULSE TO STRONG ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA FROM THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. EARLY NEXT WEEK THE TROUGH THAT WAS FORMERLY A STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AND RIDGING WILL FILL IN ALONG 32N ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT MAINLY MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW N OF 27N...AND MODERATE TO FRESH EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW S OF 27N WITH SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC WATERS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LATTO. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.