000 AGXX40 KNHC 110625 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 225 AM EDT THU AUG 11 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. A WEAK SURFACE LOW THAT IS IN SW ALABAMA CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH AN INVERTED MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT COVERS THE WESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF TODAY. THE SURFACE LOW FINALLY WILL DISSIPATE INTO A REMNANT TROUGH AS IT DRIFTS NW-N DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE E CENTRAL GULF TO THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST. THE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH WINDS INCREASING SLIGHTLY TO MODERATE AND LOCALLY FRESH ACROSS THE BASIN THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL ALSO SURGE TO FRESH OFFSHORE OF THE NW PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A WEAK AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN THERMAL TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE NW YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH AFTERNOON...INTO THE SW GULF...WHERE IT WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS RELATIVELY TIGHT IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DUE TO A RIDGE THAT IS TO THE N OF THE BASIN. THE GRADIENT IS IN THE PROCESS OF WEAKENING AS THE RIDGE IS BEING DISRUPTED BY PASSING TROPICAL WAVES. THE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL DIMINISH BY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN WILL STRENGTHEN BACK TO FRESH TO STRONG SAT NIGHT...WHILE GRADUALLY EXPANDING IN COVERAGE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGING REBUILDS. OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...EXCEPT INCREASING TO FRESH TO STRONG SUN NIGHT IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS AS THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AT NIGHT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. A WEAK N TO S SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE WESTERN BAHAMAS HELPING TO SPARK CONVECTION ACROSS NEARBY AREAS. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST E OF THE OFFSHORE BASIN N OF 26N ALONG 61W. THIS TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE W REACHING 67W FRI MORNING...69W SAT MORNING...THEN LIFTING NW OF THE AREA THROUGH SUN AND SUN NIGHT. OTHERWISE...SURFACE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS... BECOMING MORE PRONOUNCED EARLY NEXT WEEK ONCE THE TROUGH DEPARTS. MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE RETURN FLOW IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE WATERS TO THE N OF 23N THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY FLOW TO THE S OF 23N... EXCEPT PULSING LOCALLY TO FRESH TO STRONG OFFSHORE OF HISPANIOLA DURING THE EVENING HOURS EACH DAY. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.