000 AGXX40 KNHC 101839 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 239 PM EDT WED AUG 10 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. A WEAK SURFACE LOW THAT IS IN SW ALABAMA CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH AN INVERTED MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT COVERS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF TODAY. THE SURFACE LOW FINALLY WILL DISSIPATE INTO A REMNANT TROUGH DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NE GULF TO THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST. THE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE NW OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WHERE WINDS WILL SURGE TO FRESH TO STRONG TONIGHT...AND THEN FRESH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THEREAFTER THROUGH SUN MORNING. A WEAK AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN THERMAL TROUGH IS MOVING FROM THE NW YUCATAN PENINSULA...EACH AFTERNOON...INTO THE SW GULF WHERE IT WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MAINLY MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN...EXCEPT LOCALLY FRESH TO STRONG IN THE NE GULF WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS TIGHT...AND LOCALLY FRESH OFFSHORE OF THE NW YUCATAN AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. SEAS ARE MAINLY 2-4 FT...EXCEPT 4-6 FT IN THE NE GULF AND 2 FT OR LESS IN THE SE GULF. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA DUE TO A RIDGE THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF THE BASIN. THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN THE WAKE OF A TROPICAL WAVE NOW IS ACROSS GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR...AND LOW PRESSURE THAT IS NEAR THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN...EXCEPT PULSING TO FRESH TO STRONG THROUGH THE APPROACH TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. A TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 67W/68W. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS TO THE W TODAY INCREASING SHOWER AND TSTM CHANCES ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES... REACHING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THU...AND THE W CARIBBEAN FRI INTO SAT. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC TONIGHT...INTO THE E CARIBBEAN BY FRI MORNING...AND THEN INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE BASIN ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR TRADES TO DIMINISH IN STRENGTH. THE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WEAK THROUGH SAT...BUT IT WILL TIGHTEN AGAIN SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT ALLOWING FOR THE RETURN AND GRADUAL EXPANSION OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE BASIN. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N77W ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS TO ANDROS ISLAND AND 23N78W...WHICH IS DISRUPTING ATLC RIDGE THAT IS TO THE EAST. THE NORTHERN PART OF A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG THAT IS ALONG 67W/68W IS MOVING WESTWARD TO THE S OF 23N. THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT WIND SPEEDS AND DIRECTIONS VARY QUITE A BIT ACROSS THE BASIN DUE TO THE INTERACTION AND PLACEMENT OF ALL OF THESE FEATURES. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO BE QUITE WEAK THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE TODAY WHILE ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE E...COVERING THE AREA THAT IS BETWEEN 65W AND 70W FROM 24N NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY MORNING. THE NORTHERN PART OF THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE SE PART OF THE BASIN ON THURSDAY...GROWING IN AMPLITUDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WEAK AND BROAD RIDGING N-NE OF THE AREA WILL SUPPORT GENTLE TO MODERATE RETURN FLOW N OF 22N THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY FLOW S OF 22N...EXCEPT PULSING OCCASIONALLY TO STRONG JUST N OF HISPANIOLA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER MT. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.