000 AGXX40 KNHC 100708 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 308 AM EDT WED AUG 10 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. A WEAK SURFACE LOW LOCATED OVER SW ALABAMA CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH AN INVERTED MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ACTIVE CONVECTION IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF TODAY. OTHERWISE RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE NE GULF TO THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST. A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH IS MOVING FROM THE NW YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE SW GULF WHERE IT WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MAINLY MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN...EXCEPT LOCALLY FRESH TO STRONG IN THE NE GULF WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS TIGHT...AND LOCALLY FRESH OFFSHORE OF THE NW YUCATAN AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. SEAS ARE MAINLY 2-4 FT...EXCEPT 4-6 FT IN THE NE GULF AND 2 FT OR LESS IN THE SE GULF. THE SURFACE LOW WILL FINALLY DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS INTO A REMNANT TROUGH. THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON OVER THE YUCATAN BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE INTO THE SW GULF EACH NIGHT. OTHERWISE...RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OR JUST N OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE NW OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WHERE WINDS WILL SURGE TO FRESH TO STRONG TONIGHT... AND THEN FRESH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THEREAFTER THROUGH SUN MORNING. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING N OF THE BASIN WHICH CONTINUES TO BUILD IN THE WAKE OF A TROPICAL WAVE NOW ACROSS GUATEMALA...AND LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA. MODEL GUIDANCE HAD INDICATED THE CHANCE FOR A BRIEF MINIMAL GALE EVENT JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA PRIOR TO 06Z...HOWEVER A RECENT WINDSAT PASS AND A NEARBY SHIP OBSERVATION DID NOT SUPPORT SUCH AND A GALE WARNING WAS NOT RAISED. MEANWHILE A SHIP OBSERVATION IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS REPORTED FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WHERE THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT IS ALSO RELATIVELY TIGHT. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN...EXCEPT PULSING TO FRESH TO STRONG THROUGH THE APPROACH TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. A TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 65W. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS TO THE W TODAY INCREASING SHOWER AND TSTM CHANCES ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES... REACHING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THU...AND THE W CARIBBEAN FRI INTO SAT. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC TONIGHT...INTO THE E CARIBBEAN BY EARLY FRI...THEN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. OTHERWISE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR TRADES TO DIMINISH IN STRENGTH. THE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WEAK THROUGH SAT...BUT WILL TIGHTEN YET AGAIN SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT ALLOWING FOR THE RETURN AND GRADUAL EXPANSION OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE BASIN. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM NEAR 29N74W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WHICH IS DISRUPTING ATLC RIDGING TO THE E. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 65W IS MOVING BY TO THE S OF 23N. THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT WIND SPEEDS AND DIRECTIONS VARY QUITE A BIT ACROSS THE BASIN DUE TO THE INTERACTION AND PLACEMENT OF ALL OF THESE FEATURES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO BE QUITE WEAK THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE TODAY WHILE ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE E...REACHING 65W TO THE N OF 27N LATE TONIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY PROPAGATING W THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE SE PART OF THE BASIN THU...GROWING IN AMPLITUDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...WEAK AND BROAD RIDGING N-NE OF THE AREA WILL SUPPORT GENTLE TO MODERATE RETURN FLOW N OF 22N THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY FLOW S OF 22N...EXCEPT PULSING OCCASIONALLY TO STRONG JUST N OF HISPANIOLA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.