000 AGXX40 KNHC 091835 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 235 PM EDT TUE AUG 9 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. WW3 MODEL USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. A SURFACE LOW HAS REDEVELOPED OVER THE GULF WATERS JUST SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON DRIFTING THIS LOW WEST TO NORTHWEST TOWARD SOUTHERN ALABAMA/LOUISIANA OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND SOME EMBEDDED SQUALLS WILL LIKELY PERSIST OVER THE NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF WILL BUILD SEAS TO 4 TO 6 FT NORTH OF 27N THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO DECREASE TO MODERATE WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 3 TO 4 FT OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF WEDNESDAY MORNING. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM SOUTH FLORIDA TO NORTHEASTERN MEXICO WILL SLOWLY SHIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...RESIDING FROM THE TEXAS COAST TO NORTHERN FLORIDA BY LATE THIS WEEK. MAINLY MODERATE WINDS WILL COVER THE GULF WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...EXCEPT GENTLE TO LIGHT NEAR THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF LATER THIS WEEK. ALSO...A THERMAL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY BEFORE DRIFTING OFFSHORE INTO THE SW GULF AT NIGHT. THIS TROUGH WILL SUPPORT A NOCTURNAL SURGE OF MAINLY FRESH WINDS JUST OFFSHORE OF THE YUCATAN...EXCEPT BRIEFLY TO STRONG WED NIGHT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. WW3 MODEL USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN ATLANTIC RIDGING AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER COLOMBIA WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO NEAR GALE WINDS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE THE STRONGEST FROM 00Z THIS EVENING THROUGH 09Z WEDNESDAY MORNING WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COLOMBIA COAST EAST OF 76W. SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODEL MEMBERS ARE FORECASTING BRIEF GALE CONDITIONS TONIGHT. HOWEVER...SINCE OTHER MODEL MEMBERS ARE BELOW GALE AND THE MODEL MEMBERS THAT ARE FORECASTING GALE ARE DOING SO WITH BORDERLINE CONDITIONS...HELD OFF ISSUING A GALE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. REGARDLESS...SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10 TO 14 FT WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA IN THE NEAR GALE CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH A BROAD AREA OF WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ELSEWHERE N OF 10.5N AND SOUTH OF 16N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. EAST SWELL OF 8 TO 10 FT IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE TO 83W TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO RELAX SOMEWHAT WITH WINDS SUBSIDING OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO MODERATE TO FRESH. A TROPICAL WAVE PASSING THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN OVER THE WEEKEND IS FORECAST TO RE- INTENSIFY WINDS TO FRESH TO STRONG BY SUNDAY. MAINLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES ARE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN THE WAKE OF A TROPICAL WAVE...WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT WILL PULSE BRIEFLY OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS TONIGHT WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. WINDS OVER THE APPROACH TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WILL PULSE TO 20 TO 25 KT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A TROPICAL WAVE FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS TO CENTRAL AMERICA WILL EXIT THE CARIBBEAN BASIN TONIGHT. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY A COUPLE HUNDRED NM EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL CROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES TONIGHT...THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ON WEDNESDAY...THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THURSDAY...AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 35W WILL REACH THE LESSER ANTILLES LATE FRIDAY...THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SATURDAY...AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUNDAY. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. WW3 MODEL USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. A RIDGE WITH AN AXIS FROM HIGH PRESSURE NEAR 28N64W TO THE CAROLINA COASTS WILL REMAIN IN TACT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IN THE FORM OF A SURFACE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES TODAY. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING. BY LATE THIS WEEK A RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO NORTHERN FLORIDA AND ACROSS OUR NORTHERN WATERS. THE RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE ATLANTIC ZONES NORTH OF 25N WILL SUPPORT MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS THROUGH THE WEEK WITH 3 TO 5 FT SEAS PERSISTING NE OF THE BAHAMAS. SOUTH OF 25N...MAINLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL. WINDS ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA ARE FORECAST TO PULSE TO FRESH TO STRONG EACH EVENING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LATTO. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.