000 AGXX40 KNHC 090734 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 334 AM EDT TUE AUG 9 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW WAS ANALYZED NEAR 31N88W WHERE IT WILL MEANDER THROUGH MID-WEEK...GRADUALLY WEAKENING AND DRIFTING WESTWARD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NE OF FLORIDA IN THE ATLC COMBINED WITH THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CONVECTION IN THE N CENTRAL AND NE GULF...UNTIL THE SURFACE LOW FINALLY DISSIPATES BY WED NIGHT. A THERMAL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY BEFORE DRIFTING OFFSHORE INTO THE SW GULF AT NIGHT...HELPING TO PRODUCE A NOCTURNAL SURGE OF MAINLY FRESH WINDS JUST OFFSHORE OF THE YUCATAN...EXCEPT BRIEFLY TO STRONG LATE WED NIGHT. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL EXTEND FROM E TO W ACROSS MAINLY THE CENTRAL GULF THROUGH MID-WEEK...THEN BECOMING ORIENTED FROM THE NE GULF TO THE TEXAS COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK. MODERATE TO FRESH CYCLONIC WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NE AND N CENTRAL GULF...BRIEFLY INCREASING TO STRONG LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT GENTLE TO MODERATE RETURN FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. SEAS WILL BE 4-6 FT IN THE NE GULF BEFORE SUBSIDING AS THE LOW DISSIPATES...WITH 2 FT OR LESS ALONG THE RIDGING AND 2-4 FT ELSEWHERE. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. A TROPICAL WAVE WHICH WAS ANALYZED FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR EASTERN HONDURAS TO ACROSS CENTRAL NICARAGUA WILL MOVE W OF THE AREA BY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED N-NE OF THE BASIN IN THE ATLC COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE COLOMBIAN COAST AT 10.5N75W HAS RESULTED IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. AS A RESULT...MAINLY FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ARE BLOWING THERE...EXCEPT UP TO NEAR GALE FORCE IN THE GULF OF VENEZUELA AND JUST NW OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AS CONFIRMED BY OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER PASSES. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL THEN IMPROVE AT THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO A TROPICAL WAVE WHICH WILL APPROACH THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA LATE FRI INTO SAT. TRADES WILL BE MODERATE TO FRESH OTHERWISE... EXCEPT PULSING TO FRESH TO STRONG IN AND NEAR THE GULF OF HONDURAS TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED WHERE THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRIEFLY TIGHTEN. SEAS WILL BE UP TO 10-14 FT NEAR THE STRONG WINDS NW OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA DURING PEAK WIND HOURS...8-11 FT ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...AND MAINLY 4-7 FT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA UNTIL SUBSIDING THROUGHOUT BY THE END OF THE WEEK. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. THE REMNANTS OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH REMAIN DRAPPED FROM N TO S ACROSS THE BAHAMAS WHICH ARE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO PRODUCE CONVECTION. OTHERWISE...1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE WAS ANALYZED NEAR 28N65W WITH RIDGING EXTENDING FROM E TO NW THROUGH THE HIGH CONTROLLING THE WEATHER ACROSS THE BASIN. THE STRONGEST WINDS CAN BE FOUND OFFSHORE OF SE GEORGIA/NE FLORIDA WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS TIGHT DUE TO SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NEAR MOBILE ALABAMA. MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS OBSERVED ELSEWHERE. A FRONTAL TROUGH...THE REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT...WILL DROP S AND CLIP THE NE PORTION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WED HELPING TO DISRUPT THE HIGH AND RIDGE. THE TROUGH WILL THEN DRIFT W-NW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK ACROSS THE N CENTRAL AND NE WATERS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RELATIVELY WEEK PRESSURE PATTERN ACROSS THE BASIN... EXCEPT JUST N OF HISPANIOLA WHERE WINDS WILL MANAGE TO PULSE TO FRESH TO STRONG JUST OFFSHORE DURING MAINLY THE EVENING HOURS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SEAS WILL BE MAINLY 3-5 FT...EXCEPT 2 FT OR LESS INSIDE THE BAHAMAS...SUBSIDING TO 2-4 FT OUTSIDE OF THE BAHAMAS BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH DISSIPATES. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.