000 AGXX40 KNHC 081838 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 238 PM EDT MON AUG 8 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. BROAD LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CONTINUES ACROSS THE NE GULF COASTAL PLAINS WITH SEVERAL LOWS ANALYZED THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THIS IS ALSO PERPETUATING BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE NE GULF...WITH SIGNIFICANT LLVL CONVERGENCE ACROSS MUCH OF NE GULF AND W COASTAL PORTIONS OF FL. UPPER LOW SHIFTING NW ACROSS SW N ATLC PAST 48 HRS HAS SHIFTED INTO NE FL-GA COASTS AND DEEPENING THE LLVL CYCLONIC FLOW MENTIONED ABOVE...AND AIDING IN PRODUCING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT FOR SUSTAINED DEEP CNVTN. MODERATE SW FLOW INTO THE FL BIG BEND BASIN YIELDING SEAS 3-5 FT SINCE THIS MORNING WHILE SEAS 3 FT OR LESS ELSEWHERE. THE BROAD LOW AND TROUGHING WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEK... GRADUALLY DRIFTING WESTWARD. THESE FEATURES WILL KEEP ACTIVE CONVECTION ACROSS THE N CENTRAL AND NE GULF. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY EACH EVENING BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE INTO THE SW GULF DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OTHERWISE...RIDGING WILL EXTEND FROM E TO W ACROSS MAINLY THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS. WINDS WILL BE MODERATE TO FRESH S OF THE TROUGH IN SW FLOW...AND LIGHT TO MODERATE ELSEWHERE. ECMWF MORE AGGRESSIVE AND STRONGER WITH THESE SW WINDS THAN GFS. ASSOCIATED SEAS OF 4-5 FT POSSIBLY 4-6 FT EXPECTED SE OF THE NE GULF/N CENTRAL GULF TROUGH THROUGH MID- WEEK...3-5 FT IN THE SW AND WESTERN GULF...AND 2 FT OR LESS NEAR THE RIDGING. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. WEAK PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE BASIN GENERALLY YIELDING ONLY MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE BASIN...WITH STRONG WINDS IN CLIMO POSITION ACROSS S CENTRAL PORTIONS...WHERE SEAS ARE 8-10 FT ATTM. ONE TROPICAL WAVE HAS EXITED TO THE W ACROSS THE YUCATAN W OF 90W WHILE THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE HAS CROSSED 80W AND IS ABOUT TO ENTER COASTAL NICARAGUA. WEAK RIDGING BEHIND THIS WAVE AIDING IN STRONG FLOW ACROSS S CENTRAL PORTIONS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PERSIST THROUGH WED NIGHT WITH WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR GALE FORCE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS JUST NW OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL THEN WEAKEN AT THE END OF THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR TRADES TO RELAX. ALSO...A SURGE OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IS ANTICIPATED IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS DUE A LOCALLY TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT TUE NIGHT BUILDING SEAS TO NEAR 8 FT BY EARLY WED. OTHERWISE...TRADES WILL BE MODERATE TO FRESH AND SEAS 4-7 FT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. A WEAK NE TO SW ALIGNED TROUGH CONTINUES NE OF THE BAHAMAS FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO NEAR 28N71W...TO THE SE OF UPPER LOW SHIFTING INTO NE FL-SE GA. THIS LLVL TROUGH IS DISRUPTING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS. THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN WEAK WHILE IT DRIFTS NW-N THROUGH THE WEEK. OVERALL... A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK RESULTING IN FAIRLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS WILL PREVAIL JUST OFFSHORE OF SE GEORGIA AND NE FLORIDA AS WELL AS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS...PULSING TO STRONG JUST N OF HISPANIOLA AT NIGHT...THROUGH TUE NIGHT... DIMINISHING THEREAFTER...WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ELSEWHERE. SEAS EXPECTED GENERALLY 3-5 FT THROUGH TUE NIGHT...THEN 2-4 FT THEREAFTER... EXCEPT 2 FT OR LESS INSIDE THE BAHAMAS...AND 4-5 FT ACROSS SE WATERS N OF PUERTO RICO. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.