000 AGXX40 KNHC 071748 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 148 PM EDT SUN AUG 7 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH FLORIDA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE WLY FLOW ACROSS NE PORTIONS OF GULF AND VERY ACTIVE CONVECTION. SEAS WERE RUNNING 1-2 FT ABOVE WW3 AT 12Z ANALYSIS. LOW FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT NW NEXT FEW DAYS WITH TROUGHING EXTENDING SW OF THE LOW INTO THE NE AND N CENTRAL. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LLVL CONVERGENCE AND ACTIVE CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH LATE AFTERNOON- EVENING BEFORE DRIFTING OFFSHORE INTO THE SW GULF DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. OTHERWISE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL EXTEND ACROSS MAINLY THE CENTRAL GULF THROUGH THE WEEK. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS WILL PREVAIL IN THE NE GULF AND OFFSHORE OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR THE TROUGHING...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ELSEWHERE. SEAS WILL BE 3-5 FT IN THE NE GULF...2-4 FT IN THE WESTERN GULF...AND 2 FT OR LESS ELSEWHERE. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS A PAIR OF TROPICAL WAVES ARE PROPAGATING W ACROSS THE W HALF OF CARIBBEAN WATERS. INDUCED LOW TO MID LEVEL TROUGHING BY UPPER LOW N OF HISPANIOLA IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING BROAD TROUGHING 68-70W ACROSS N CENTRAL PORTIONS AND INTO ATLC WATERS AND MASKING WAVE SIGNALS SOMEWHAT. ALTHOUGH PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...AND MY 12Z HSF... DEPICTED STRONG ESE WINDS ALONG VENEZUELA COASTAL WATERS IN S CENTRAL CARIB...THIS SHARP TROUGH WOULD SUGGEST THAT THIS IS NOT OCCURRING. THESE WINDS WERE NOT PRES GRADIENT DRIVEN BUT MORE FROM HIGH PRES BUILDING IN BEHIND THE SECOND TROPICAL WAVE. WAVES ARE PRESENTLY ALONG ABOUT 83-84W AND MOVING INTO HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA...AND ALONG 73-74W. MAX SEAS SHOULD BE OCCURRING ACROSS S CENTRAL PORTIONS AT 6-7 FT ATTM. A PIECE OF WAVE ENERGY HAS RACED OUT AHEAD OF NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IN CENTRAL ATLC AND IS IGNITING STRONG CNVTN ALONG ITCZ ACROSS TROPICAL N ATLC WATER...WHERE MODERATE ENE TRADES CURRENTLY PREVAIL SEAS THERE AREA MOSTLY 5-6 FT AND A BIT LOWER NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING TO THE N OF THE AREA IS FORECAST TO BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE SECOND TROPICAL WAVE BY TONIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH TRADES INCREASING TO FRESH TO STRONG BUILDING SEAS TO 8-11 FT AS A RESULT BY EARLY MON. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH WINDS PEAKING AT NEAR GALE FORCE JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA AND IN THE GULF OF VENEZUELA DURING THE LATE NIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...STARTING MON NIGHT...WITH SEAS BUILDING 9-12 FT EACH LATE NIGHT-EARLY MORNING. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS STARTING MON NIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL THEN WEAKEN BY THE END OF THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR DIMINISHING WINDS AND SUBSIDING SEAS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS A WEAK RIDGE PREVAILS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS...WHILE UPPER LOW HAS CARVED OUT LOW TO MID LEVEL TROUGH FROM N COAST OF HAITI NNE TO NEAR 24N71W...WHERE ACTIVE CNVTN PERSISTS UNDER UPPER DIVERGENCE E OF THE UPPER LOW. MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS GENERALLY PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN...EXCEPT NEAR THE TROUGH...WITH SEAS 5 FT OR LESS EXCEPT ACROSS THE BAHAMAS. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DRIFT NW THROUGH THE WEEK...DISRUPTING THE RIDGING. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP A WEAK LOW OUT OF THIS TROUGH...ALTHOUGH THE MOST RECENT RUNS CONTINUE TO BACK OFF ON ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.