000 AGXX40 KNHC 060715 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 315 AM EDT SAT AUG 6 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FOR WINDS. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. TROPICAL STORM EARL HAS MOVED INLAND NEAR VERACRUZ DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. EARL IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND...BECOMING A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TONIGHT...AND DISSIPATING BY SUN MORNING. TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL CAUSE DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES THIS WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...A RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF FROM 1015 MB HIGH PRESSURE NEAR 28N87W. THE LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS S OF 23N W OF 88W ALONG WITH 6-9 FT SEAS...EXCEPT UP TO 17 FT JUST OFFSHORE WHERE EARL MADE LANDFALL...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND 2-4 FT SEAS ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT 3-5 FT IN THE CENTRAL GULF. TROUGHING WILL SETTLE ACROSS AND LINGER ACROSS THE NE GULF THIS WEEKEND. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS TROUGHING...HOWEVER DISAGREEMENT REMAINS AND THE LOW MAY OR MAY NOT REMAIN INLAND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT ACTIVE CONVECTION ACROSS THE N CENTRAL AND NE GULF DUE TO THE TROUGHING. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FOR WINDS. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS PROPAGATING THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THE LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY... AND CMAN DATA DEPICT MAINLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN. SEAS ARE IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...4-7 FT OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...3-5 FT OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...AND 4-7 FT OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING TO THE N OF THE AREA IS FORECAST TO BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE SECOND TROPICAL WAVE BY SUN NIGHT INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH TRADES INCREASING TO FRESH TO STRONG BUILDING SEAS TO 8-11 FT AS A RESULT BY EARLY MON. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH WINDS PEAKING AT NEAR GALE FORCE JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA AND IN THE GULF OF VENEZUELA DURING THE LATE NIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS... STARTING MON NIGHT. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS STARTING MON NIGHT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FOR WINDS. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY... AND CMAN DATA DEPICT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS...AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 3-4 FT RANGE OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS...4-7 FT OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS...AND 1-2 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHILE A PAIR OF TROPICAL WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE SECOND TROPICAL WAVE MAY FRACTURE AND MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION BY MON THROUGH MID-WEEK... POTENTIALLY DISRUPTING THE RIDGING. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING EARLY TODAY. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.