000 AGXX40 KNHC 050713 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 313 AM EDT FRI AUG 5 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FOR WINDS. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. TROPICAL STORM EARL WAS INLAND CENTERED NEAR 18.3N 92.3W AT 0600 UTC AND APPROACHING THE COAST OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PREVAILS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS. THE LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN THE SW GULF AND BAY OF CAMPECHE TO THE N OF EARL...WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAILING ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WITH SE SWELL DUE TO THE RELATIVELY LARGE FETCH AREA ASSOCIATED WITH EARL. ASIDE FROM THIS AREA...SEAS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS AND 1-3 FT OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS. EARL IS NOW FORECAST TO EMERGE JUST OFFSHORE OF MEXICO TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN MOVING BACK INLAND AND WEAKENING OVER MAINLAND MEXICO ON SATURDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A TROUGH OR OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTRUDING ON THE N CENTRAL AND NE GULF THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE TROUGH ASSUMING IT MANAGES TO SINK OFFSHORE FROM THE GULF COAST STATES. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FOR WINDS. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. EARL CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN...HOWEVER DEEP CONVECTION IS IMPACTING THE NW WATERS AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ALSO CONTINUE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF HONDURAS. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AS EARL CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA. OTHERWISE...THE LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN THE IMMEDIATE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH SEAS TO 8 FT DUE TO A LOCALLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING AS THE GRADIENT SLACKENS. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN...EXCEPT GENTLE IN THE SW CARIBBEAN. SEAS ARE IN THE 8-9 FT RANGE OVER THE NW WATERS...4-7 FT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...2-4 FT OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...AND 4-7 FT OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. AS IS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...TROPICAL WAVES WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FOR WINDS. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY... AND CMAN DATA DEPICT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS...AND MODERATE TO FRESH OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...4-6 FT RANGE OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS...AND 1-2 FT WEST OF THE BAHAMAS. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT. .GMZ025...E BAY OF CAMPECHE INCLUDING CAMPECHE BANK... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.