000 AGXX40 KNHC 040813 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 413 AM EDT THU AUG 4 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND MANUAL EDITS. HURRICANE EARL NOW INLAND IN BELIZE. EARL IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS LAND TODAY THURSDAY...AND REACH THE SW CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE TONIGHT THURSDAY. UPCOMING CHANGES WILL BE SEEN IN THE SW GULF AND ERN BAY OF CAMPECHE ZONES. EARL IS FORECAST TO RE- INTENSIFY AND GIVE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ON FRI. EARL IS FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND IN MEXICO ON SAT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL OVERNIGHT AND IN THE SW GULF BEGINNING LATE ON THU. WINDS AND SEAS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND PARTS OF THE SW GULF WILL SUBSIDE ONCE EARL MOVES INLAND IN MEXICO ON FRI. SURFACE RIDGE IN THE NRN GULF WATER WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD...TENDING TO MAINTAIN GENERALLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS DURING FORECAST PERIOD AND RELATIVELY LOW SEAS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS WITH MANUAL EDITS. T.S.EARL NEAR 17.4N 88.3W 979 MB...INLAND...OR ABOUT 6 MILES SW OF BELIZE AT 1 AM CDT MOVING W OR 280 DEG AT 12 KT WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. EARL WILL BE INLAND AT 05/0000 UTC NEAR 18.2N 91.4W AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. EARL WILL MOVE OVER WATER AND BE NEAR 18.8N 95.1W AT 06/0000 UTC AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. EARL WILL BE INLAND IN MEXICO NEAR 20.0N 98.3W...AT 07/0000 UTC...WITH 20 KNOT WINDS AND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS. A TROPICAL WAVE W REACH ALONG 55W LATE TONIGHT...PASS ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES ON THU NIGHT...MOVE THROUGH THE ERN CARIBBEAN FRI AND FRI NIGHT...THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SAT AND SAT NIGHT AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SUN AND SUN NIGHT. EARL WILL IMPACT WINDS AND SEAS IN MUCH OF THE WRN PART OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED AND THE WRN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU AFTERNOON WITH MAX COMBINED SEAS EXPECTED TO REACH AROUND 29 FT IN THE NW CARIBBEAN TONIGHT INTO THU. SEAS TO 11 FT WILL LINGER IN THE NW CARIBBEAN ZONE AMZ011 EARLY ON THU...THEN SUBSIDE TO 9 FT THU NIGHT AND TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY EARLY ON FRI. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL BE ALONG 59W/60W LATER TONIGHT ON THURSDAY. IT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES OVERNIGHT EARLY ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE ERN CARIBBEAN FRI AND FRI NIGHT...THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SAT AND SAT NIGHT AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SUN AND SUN NIGHT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND MANUAL EDITS. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ROUGHLY ALONG 28N. SEAS E OF THE BAHAMAS HAVE SUBSIDED TO LESS THAN 8 FT...AND ARE IN THE 5-6 FT RANGE. SEAS ELSEWHERE W OF THE BAHAMAS ARE IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE. MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH SUN...WITH WIND DIRECTION STEERED BY THE RIDGE. THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE SLIGHTLY ESE SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT. WINDS WILL PULSE TO MODERATE TO FRESH INTENSITY BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND HISPANIOLA TUE THROUGH SUN. THE NRN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN WATERS FRI THROUGH SUN NIGHT FOLLOWED BY FRESH TO MODERATE WINDS WITH SEAS OF ABOUT 5-7 FT BEHIND IT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ011...CARIBBEAN N OF 18N W OF 85W INCLUDING YUCATAN BASIN... TROPICAL STORM WARNING EARLY TODAY. .AMZ017...GULF OF HONDURAS... TROPICAL STORM WARNING EARLY TODAY. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER MT. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.