000 AGXX40 KNHC 031835 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 235 PM EDT WED AUG 3 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS USED 12Z GFS BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF T.S. EARL WHERE THE TCM WINDS WERE INCORPORATED IN THE SW GULF ZONES. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS USED 12Z MWW3 BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL EXCEPT FOR TAFB NWPS OUTPUT IN THE SW GULF WITH T.S. EARL. HIGH CONFIDENCE...EXCEPT AVERAGE CONFIDENCE SW GULF FRI THROUGH THU THROUGH FRI NIGHT. HIGH PRES RIDGING ACROSS THE NRN GULF WATER WILL REMAIN THE MAIN FEATURE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD MAINTAINING GENERALLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS THROUGHOUT AND RELATIVELY LOW SEAS. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NE FL SW TO NEAR 25N88W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS NOTED ALONG AND NEAR THE TROUGH. UPCOMING CHANGES WILL BE SEEN IN THE SW GULF ZONES AS TROPICAL STORM EARL PRESENTLY IN THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA RE-EMERGES INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AREA LATE THU NIGHT...AND INTENSIFIES BACK TO A TROPICAL STORM ON FRI. EARL IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND MEXICO ON SAT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TONIGHT AND IN THE SW GULF BEGINNING LATE ON THU. ONCE EARL MOVES INLAND MEXICO ON FRI...WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND PORTIONS OF THE SW GULF WILL SUBSIDE. THE NDFD WIND AND WAVEHEIGHT GRIDS WILL BE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY BASED ON LATEST FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY OF EARL. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS WITH MANUAL EDITS TO PERIPHERY OF EARL T.S. WINDS. TAFB NWPS OUTPUT WAS USED WITH THE EARL TCM WIND FIELD. HIGH CONFIDENCE. T.S.EARL NEAR 16.8N 85.6W 990 MB OR ABOUT 55 MILES ENE OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS AT 1 PM EDT MOVING W OR 280 DEG AT 12 KT WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. EARL IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO A HURRICANE NEAR 16.8N 86.6W EARLY TONIGHT WITH MAXIMUM WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT...MOVE INLAND BELIZE LATE TONIGHT AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT REACHES NEAR 17.5N 89.0W EARLY ON THU. A TROPICAL WAVE W REACH ALONG 55W LATE TONIGHT...PASS ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES ON THU NIGHT...MOVE THROUGH THE ERN CARIBBEAN FRI AND FRI NIGHT...THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SAT AND SAT NIGHT AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SUN AND SUN NIGHT. EARL WILL IMPACT WINDS AND SEAS IN MUCH OF THE WRN PART OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED AND THE WRN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU AFTERNOON WITH MAX COMBINED SEAS EXPECTED TO REACH AROUND 29 FT IN THE NW CARIBBEAN TONIGHT INTO THU. SEAS TO 11 FT WILL LINGER IN THE NW CARIBBEAN ZONE AMZ011 EARLY ON THU...THEN SUBSIDE TO 9 FT THU NIGHT AND TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY EARLY ON FRI. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH ALONG 55W LATE TONIGHT...PASS ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES ON THU NIGHT...MOVE THROUGH THE ERN CARIBBEAN FRI AND FRI NIGHT...THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SAT AND SAT NIGHT AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SUN AND SUN NIGHT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND MANUAL EDITS. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ROUGHLY ALONG 28N. SEAS E OF THE BAHAMAS HAVE SUBSIDED TO LESS THAN 8 FT...AND ARE IN THE 5-6 FT RANGE. SEAS ELSEWHERE W OF THE BAHAMAS ARE IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE. MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH SUN...WITH WIND DIRECTION STEERED BY THE RIDGE. THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE SLIGHTLY ESE SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT. WINDS WILL PULSE TO MODERATE TO FRESH INTENSITY BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND HISPANIOLA TUE THROUGH SUN. THE NRN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN WATERS FRI THROUGH SUN NIGHT FOLLOWED BY FRESH TO MODERATE WINDS WITH SEAS OF ABOUT 5-7 FT BEHIND IT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING FRI. .GMZ025...E BAY OF CAMPECHE INCLUDING CAMPECHE BANK... TROPICAL STORM WARNING THU NIGHT INTO FRI. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ011...CARIBBEAN N OF 18N W OF 85W INCLUDING YUCATAN BASIN... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TONIGHT. .AMZ017...GULF OF HONDURAS... HURRICANE WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT. .AMZ019...CARIBBEAN FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 80W AND 85W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.