000 AGXX40 KNHC 030829 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 429 AM EDT WED AUG 3 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND MANUAL EDITS. TROPICAL STORM EARL IS FORECAST TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT 18 HOURS OR SO IN NW CARIBBEAN SEA. EARL IS FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND NRN BELIZE ON WED EVENING...AND WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION BEFORE ENTERING SW CORNER OF GULF OF MEXICO/BAY OF CAMPECHE AREA LATE THU...AS IT REGAINS TROPICAL STORM WARNING INTENSITY. EARL IS FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND IN MEXICO AND WEAKEN ON FRI. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE IN THE EXTREME NW CARIBBEAN...YUCATAN CHANNEL AND SW GULF BEGINNING THU. WINDS AND SEAS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND PARTS OF THE SW GULF WILL SUBSIDE ONCE EARL MOVES INLAND IN MEXICO ON FRI. A SURFACE RIDGE IN THE NRN GULF WILL REMAIN THE MAIN FEATURE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH PERIOD. THE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS THROUGHOUT AND RELATIVELY LOW SEAS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND MANUAL EDITS. TROPICAL STORM EARL NEAR 16.4N 83.0W AT 03/0300 UTC MOVING W 14 KT WITH PRES OF 996 MB AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT. EARL WILL INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY TO 55 KT GUSTS TO 65 KT NEAR 16.7N 84.8W LATER THIS MORNING...THEN TO 65 KT GUSTS TO 80 KT WED EVENING. EARL IS FORECAST TO BE INLAND NRN BELIZE NEAR 17.8N 89.6W WED EVENING WITH MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KT GUSTS TO 60 KT. EARL WILL IMPACT WINDS AND SEAS IN MUCH OF THE WRN PART OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED AND THE WRN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU AFTERNOON WITH MAX COMBINED SEAS EXPECTED TO REACH AROUND 19 FT IN THE WRN CARIBBEAN ON WED. SEAS TO 10 FT WILL LINGER IN THE NW CARIBBEAN ZONE AMZ011 EARLY ON THU...THEN SUBSIDE TO 8 FT THU NIGHT AND TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY EARLY ON FRI. IN THE LONG TERM...A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E PART OF THE AREA WILL ENTER THE FAR ERN PART OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WED NIGHT...MOVE THROUGH THE REST OF THOSE WATERS THU...THEN MOVE ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES THU NIGHT AND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN FRI AND FRI NIGHT AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SAT AND SAT NIGHT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND MANUAL EDITS. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG 29N. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL STORM EARL IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA WHERE SEAS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 6-8 FT. THESE SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED DURING LAST 24 HOURS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH TONIGHT AS EARL PULLS OFF TO THE W...AND THE RIDGE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY. SEAS E OF THE BAHAMAS HAVE SUBSIDED TO LESS THAN 8 FT...AND ARE IN THE 5-6 FT RANGE. SEAS ELSEWHERE W OF THE BAHAMAS ARE IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE. MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH SUN...WITH WIND DIRECTION STEERED BY THE RIDGE. E WINDS MAY PULSE TO MODERATE TO FRESH INTENSITY BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND HISPANIOLA TUE THROUGH SUN. THE NRN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN WATERS FRI THROUGH SAT NIGHT FOLLOWED BY FRESH TO MODERATE WINDS WITH SEAS OF ABOUT 5-7 FT BEHIND IT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRI INTO FRI NIGHT. .GMZ025...E BAY OF CAMPECHE INCLUDING CAMPECHE BANK... GALE WARNING THU NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRI. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ011...CARIBBEAN N OF 18N W OF 85W INCLUDING YUCATAN BASIN... GALE WARNING TONIGHT. .AMZ017...GULF OF HONDURAS... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY. STORM WARNING TODAY. HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING TONIGHT. .AMZ019...CARIBBEAN FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 80W AND 85W... STORM WARNING TODAY. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER MT. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.