000 AGXX40 KNHC 021839 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 240 PM EDT TUE AUG 02 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS USED 12Z GFS BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL THROUGH WED...THEN MODEL CONSENSUS THEREAFTER. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS USED 12Z MWW3/TAFB NWPS OUTPUT WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WED...THEN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. THEREAFTER. HIGH PRES RIDGING ACROSS THE NRN GULF WATER WILL REMAIN THE MAIN FEATURE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH PERIOD MAINTAINING GENERALLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS THROUGHOUT AND RELATIVELY LOW SEAS. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 27N88W TO NEAR 23N93W WILL SLOWLY MOVE WESTWARD THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM OF THE TROUGH. UPCOMING CHANGES WILL BE ATTRIBUTED TO RECENTLY FORMED TROPICAL STORM EARL PRESENTLY IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. EARL IS FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND NRN BELIZE ON WED EVENING...AND WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION BEFORE RE-EMERGING INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AREA LATE THU AS IT AGAIN GAINS TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY AGAIN. EARL IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND MEXICO AND WEAKEN ON FRI. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE IN THE EXTREME NW CARIBBEAN...YUCATAN CHANNEL AND SW GULF BEGINNING THU. ONCE EARL MOVES INLAND MEXICO ON FRI...WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND PORTIONS OF THE SW GULF WILL SUBSIDE. THE NDFD WIND AND WAVEHEIGHT GRIDS WILL BE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY BASED ON LATEST FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM. OTHERWISE...A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF THE W COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH EVENING AND DISSIPATE IN THE SW GULF EACH MORNING THROUGH WED. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE GALE FORCE WINDS OF THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AFFECTING THE N CNTRL AND WRN CARIBBEAN SEA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IN THAT WERE NICELY CAPTURED BY OVERNIGHT ASCAT PASSES. AT 16Z UTC THIS AFTERNOON...NHC UPGRADED THE LOW PRES ON THE TROPICAL WAVE INTO TROPICAL STORM EARL NEAR 16.3N 80.2W MOVING W AT 19 KT WITH PRES OF 1001 MB AND WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT. EARL WILL INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY TO 45 KT GUSTS TO 55 KT NEAR 16.3N 82.6W EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN TO 50 KT GUSTS TO 60 KT NEAR 17.0N 85.2W WED MORNING...AND MOVE INLAND NRN BELIZE NEAR 17.5N 87.5W WED EVENING WITH MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KT GUSTS TO 65 KT. EARL WILL IMPACT WINDS AND SEAS OVER MUCH OF THE WRN PORTION OF THE CNTRL CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED AND THE WRN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU AFTERNOON WITH MAX COMBINED SEAS EXPECTED TO REACH AROUND 19 FT IN THE WRN CARIBBEAN ON WED. SEAS TO 10 FT WILL LINGER IN THE NW CARIBBEAN ZONE AMZ011 EARLY ON THU...THEN SUBSIDE TO 8 FT THU NIGHT AND TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY EARLY ON FRI. IN THE LONG TERM...A TROPICAL IN THE E OF THE AREA WILL ENTER THE FAR ERN PART OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WED NIGHT...MOVE THROUGH THE REST OF THOSE WATERS THU...THEN MOVE ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES THU NIGHT AND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN FRI AND FRI NIGHT AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SAT AND SAT NIGHT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG 29N WITH A 1022 MB HIGH AT 29N69W. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL STORM EARL IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA WHERE SEAS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 6-8 FT. THESE SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED SINCE YESTERDAY...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH TONIGHT AS EARL PULLS OFF TO THE W...AND THE RIDGE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY. SEAS E OF THE BAHAMAS HAVE SUBSIDED TO LESS THAN 8 FT...AND ARE IN THE 5-6 FT RANGE. SEAS ELSEWHERE W OF THE BAHAMAS ARE IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE. MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH SUN...WITH WIND DIRECTION STEERED BY THE RIDGE. E WINDS MAY PULSE TO MODERATE TO FRESH INTENSITY BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND HISPANIOLA TUE THROUGH SUN. THE NRN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN WATERS FRI THROUGH SAT NIGHT FOLLOWED BY FRESH TO MODERATE WINDS WITH SEAS OF ABOUT 5-7 FT BEHIND IT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT. .GMZ025...BAY OF CAMPECHE INCLUDING CAMPECHE BANK... TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU THROUGH FRI. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ011...CARIBBEAN N OF 18N W OF 85W INCLUDING YUCATAN BASIN... TROPICAL STORM WARNING WED INTO WED NIGHT. .AMZ017...GULF OF HONDURAS... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. .AMZ019...CARIBBEAN FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 80W AND 85W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING THROUGH WED. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.