000 AGXX40 KNHC 020825 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 425 AM EDT TUE AUG 2 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND MANUAL EDITS. SURFACE RIDGE IN NRN GULF WILL REMAIN THE MAIN FEATURE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH PERIOD MAINTAINING GENERALLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS THROUGHOUT AND RELATIVELY LOW SEAS. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 27N86W TO NEAR 23N92W WILL SLOWLY MOVE W THROUGH THE NEXT 72 HOURS WITH ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM OF THE TROUGH. A SURFACE LOW PRES CENTER...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...IS FORECAST TO CROSS YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS FEATURE MAY ENTER THE SW CORNER OF GULF OF MEXICO LATE ON THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE EXTREME NW CARIBBEAN... YUCATAN CHANNEL AND SW GULF BEGINNING THU. A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF THE W COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH EVENING AND DISSIPATE IN THE SW GULF EACH MORNING THROUGH WED. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND MANUAL EDITS. A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 77W/78W FROM 22N SOUTHWARD. A 1007 MB LOW PRES CENTER IS ALONG WAVE NEAR 16N. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY IS WITHIN 90 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE OF LOW PRES CENTER. THIS FEATURE WILL BE THE MAIN ONE FOR THE BASIN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT TRACKS IN A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST DIRECTION. THE INDUCED SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW CENTER AND HIGH PRES IN CENTRAL ATLC OCEAN WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STRONG GALE FORCE WINDS IN MUCH OF THE NRN PART OF CARIBBEAN SEA THROUGH TUE...SHIFTING TO THE WRN CARIBBEAN TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT...AND TO W OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA LATE WED NIGHT. LATEST OFFSHORES AND HIGH SEAS FORECASTS REFLECT THE GALE WARNING WITH THESE WINDS. SEAS WILL BUILD GRADUALLY TO A POSSIBLE MAX OF AROUND 20 FT IN THE WRN CARIBBEAN BEFORE THE LOW OR POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVES INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OR BELIZE WED NIGHT. THE FORECAST FOR THE CARIBBEAN SEA REMAINS DEPENDENT ON WHAT EVENTUALLY HAPPENS WITH THE LOW PRES CENTER...SINCE THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE THAT IT WILL DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY IS INFERRING PRESENTLY3 THAT IT IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. THE LARGE FETCH OF STRONG E TO SE WINDS WILL TRAIL THE LOW AND WAVE WITH SEAS IN THE 8-12 FT RANGE. THESE CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH ON THU. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS W INTO THE AREA FROM 30N55W TO 30N81W. THE GRADIENT S OF THE RIDGE WILL TIGHTEN AS A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE MOVES W ACROSS THE SRN WATERS THROUGH THU. THE TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND TROPICAL WAVE WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE SRN WATERS WITH SEAS TO 10 FT E OF THE BAHAMAS THROUGH TONIGHT. THESE WINDS SHIFT TO W OF 72W TONIGHT WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 8 FT E OF THE BAHAMAS...AND TO LESS THAN 8 FT ON TUE WITH AS THE STRONG GRADIENT INDUCED BY THE CARIBBEAN SEA LOW PRES CENTER AND THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS EXPECTED INTO SAT. E WINDS MAY PULSE TO MODERATE TO FRESH INTENSITY BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND HISPANIOLA TUE THROUGH SAT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ011...CARIBBEAN N OF 18N W OF 85W INCLUDING YUCATAN BASIN... GALE WARNING WED NIGHT. .AMZ013...CARIBBEAN N OF 18N BETWEEN 76W AND 85W INCLUDING CAYMAN BASIN... GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO WED. .AMZ017...GULF OF HONDURAS... GALE WARNING WED INTO WED NIGHT. .AMZ019...CARIBBEAN FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 80W AND 85W... GALE WARNING TODAY INTO WED. .AMZ021...CARIBBEAN FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W... GALE WARNING EARLY MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER MT. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.