000 AGXX40 KNHC 011847 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 247 PM EDT MON AUG 1 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS USED 12Z GFS BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL THROUGH WED...THEN MODEL CONSENSUS THEREAFTER, FOR WAVEHEIGHTS USED 12Z MWW3/TAFB NWPS OUTPUT WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WED...THEN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES RIDGING ACROSS THE NRN GULF WATER WILL REMAIN THE MAIN FEATURE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH PERIOD MAINTAINING GENERALLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS THROUGHOUT AND RELATIVELY LOW SEAS. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 27N86W TO NEAR 23N92W WILL SLOWLY MOVE W THROUGH THE NEXT 72 HOURS WITH ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM OF THE TROUGH. UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FORECAST ARRIVES LATE IN THE PERIOD REGARDING THE FUTURE OF THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE AND LOW PRES CURRENTLY IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY INDICATING THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK WNW TO ACROSS THE YUCATAN OR BELIZE LATE WED AND RE-EMERGE INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AREA LATE THU THROUGH LATE FRI. AS A RESULT...HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE EXTREME NW CARIBBEAN...YUCATAN CHANNEL AND SW GULF BEGINNING THU. THE NDFD WIND AND WAVEHEIGHT GRIDS WILL BE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY BASED ON FORECAST OF THIS EVOLVING SYSTEM. OTHERWISE...A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF THE W COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH EVENING AND DISSIPATE IN THE SW GULF EACH MORNING THROUGH WED. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE... EXCEPT AVERAGE CONFIDENCE WRN CARIBBEAN. A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 19N71W TO 12N73W TO LOW PRES NEAR 16N72W 1007 MB AND TO 12N73W. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW HAS INCREASED QUITE SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS FEATURE WILL BE THE MAIN ONE FOR THE BASIN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT TRACKS IN A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST DIRECTION. THE INDUCE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND HIGH PRES OVER CENTRAL ATLC WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STRONG GALE FORCE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE NRN PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THROUGH TUE...SHIFTING TO THE WRN CARIBBEAN TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT...AND TO W OF THE CARIBBEAN LATE WED NIGHT. LATEST OFFSHORES AND HIGH SEAS FORECASTS REFLECT THE GALE WARNING WITH THESE WINDS. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TO A POSSIBLE MAX OF AROUND 20 FT IN THE WRN CARIBBEAN BEFORE THE LOW OR POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVES INLAND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OR BELIZE WED NIGHT. THE FORECAST FOR THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS DEPENDENT ON WHAT EVENTUALLY TRANSPIRES WITH THE LOW PRES SINCE THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE THAT IT WILL INTENSIFY TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY IS PRESENTLY INFERRING THAT IT IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. THE LARGE FETCH OF STRONG E TO SE WINDS WILL TRAIL THE LOW AND WAVE WITH SEAS IN THE 8-12 FT RANGE. THESE CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH ON THU. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS W INTO THE AREA FROM 30N55W TO 30N81W. THE GRADIENT S OF THE RIDGE WILL TIGHTEN AS A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE MOVES W ACROSS THE SRN WATERS THROUGH THU. THE TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND TROPICAL WAVE WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE SRN WATERS WITH SEAS TO 10 FT E OF THE BAHAMAS THROUGH TONIGHT. THESE WINDS SHIFT TO W OF 72W TONIGHT WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 8 FT E OF THE BAHAMAS...AND LESS THAN 8 FT ON TUE WITH AS THE CULPRIT STRONG GRADIENT INDUCED BY THE CARIBBEAN LOW AND THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS EXPECTED INTO SAT. E WINDS MAY PULSE TO MODERATE TO FRESH INTENSITY BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND HISPANIOLA TUE THROUGH SAT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU NIGHT INTO FRI. .GMZ025...E BAY OF CAMPECHE INCLUDING CAMPECHE BANK... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU NIGHT INTO FRI. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ011...CARIBBEAN N OF 18N W OF 85W INCLUDING YUCATAN BASIN... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED INTO WED NIGHT. .AMZ017...GULF OF HONDURAS... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED NIGHT. .AMZ019...CARIBBEAN FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 80W AND 85W... GALE WARNING TUE AND TUE NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED. .AMZ021...CARIBBEAN FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W... GALE WARNING TONIGHT. .AMZ023...CARIBBEAN N OF 15N BETWEEN 64W AND 72W... GALE WARNING W OF 69W THIS AFTERNOON. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.