000 AGXX40 KNHC 311851 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 251 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS USED 12Z GFS BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL THROUGH TUE NIGHT...THEN MODEL CONSENSUS THEREAFTER, FOR WAVEHEIGHTS USED 12Z MWW3/TAFB NWPS OUTPUT WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE NIGHT...THEN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. A THERMAL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOONS...THEN MOVE INTO THE SW GULF WATERS IN THE EVENINGS THROUGH WED. SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE IN THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THROUGH WED NIGHT. S OF THE RIDGE...EXPECT MODERATE E-SE RETURN FLOW PRIMARILY IN THE W-CENTRAL GULF. MODERATE WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN STRAITS OF FLORIDA EACH DAY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOONS INTO EARLY EVENINGS. THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FORECAST LIES WITH THE FUTURE OF THE PRESENT STRONG CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS WAVE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO GENERATE TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT NEARS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THEN POSSIBLY TRACK WNW TO THE GENERAL AREA OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT. IF THIS DOES MATERIALIZE THEN HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE EXTREMA NW CARIBBEAN...YUCATAN CHANNEL AND FAR SOUTHERN GULF WATERS OF THE CENTRAL AND SW GULF FROM ABOUT WED AFTERNOON THROUGH FRI. NDFD WIND AND WAVEHEIGHT WILL BE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY AS PER FUTURE FORECAST DEPICTIONS OF THIS SYSTEM. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS USED 12Z GFS BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL THROUGH TUE NIGHT...THEN MODEL CONSENSUS THEREAFTER. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS USED 12Z MWW3/TAFB NWPS OUTPUT WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE NIGHT...THEN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE WED INTO EARLY FRI. A STRONG AND BROAD TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 65W REACHING N TO 22N. THE WAVE IS FOLLOWED BY A BROAD SWATH OF STRONG E TO SE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE ERN CARIBBEAN N OF 14N WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT. STRONG NE-E WINDS WERE CAPTURED BY 1316Z ASCAT PASS TODAY OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE NE CARIBBEAN AND THE NW PART OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO NEAR 71W BY EARLY MON...THEN NEAR 80W TUE MORNING AND MOVE INLAND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TUE NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A TROPICAL CYCLONE MAY GENERATE FROM THE WAVE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN. THE FORECAST FOR THE CARIBBEAN IS DEPENDENT ON WHAT EVENTUALLY TRANSPIRES WITH THE WAVE AS IT QUICKLY MOVES WESTWARD. THE LARGE FETCH OF STRONG E TO SE WINDS WILL TRAIL THE WAVE WITH SEAS IN THE 8-11 FT RANGE. THE STRONG GRADIENT BETWEEN ATLC HIGH PRES...AND PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE OVER NW COLOMBIA...WILL MAINTAIN A LARGE AREA OF PULSING STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE S-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND NEAR THE NW COLOMBIA COAST UNTIL THE WAVE PASSES ACROSS THAT AREA OF THE SEA...THEN CONDITIONS THERE WILL BE REFLECTED BY WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE UNTIL THE WAVE IS WELL PAST THE FAR WRN CARIBBEAN SEA ON FRI. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: USED 12Z GFS/MWW3 BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS W INTO THE AREA FROM 29N55W TO 28N78W. THE GRADIENT S OF THE RIDGE WILL TIGHTEN AS A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE MOVE W ACROSS THE SRN WATERS THROUGH THU. THE TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND TROPICAL WAVE WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS AND OVER MUCH OF THE SRN WATERS WITH SEAS TO 10 FT E OF THE BAHAMAS THROUGH MON. THESE WINDS SHIFT TO W OF 72W MON NIGHT WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 8 FT E OF THE BAHAMAS. WINDS THEN DIMINISH TUE THROUGH WED NIGHT AS THE WAVE OR POSSIBLE LOW MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE WRN TO INLAND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. FRESH E-SE FLOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL BE FRESH TO STRONG ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOONS INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS THROUGH WED NIGHT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.