000 AGXX40 KNHC 221801 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 201 PM EDT FRI JUL 22 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: WEIGHTED GLOBAL MODEL BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR WINDS. GLOBAL MODEL BLEND AND NWPS FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT AND DEEP MOISTURE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF TODAY...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE. THIS FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SLOWLY SHIFT WEST AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES WESTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...RIDGING ANCHORED BY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND SOUTHERN UNITED STATES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. MEANWHILE...A THERMAL TROUGH EACH EVENING WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE WEST OFF THE WESTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...SUPPORTING LOCALLY FRESH N TO NE WINDS THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE RIDGING PATTERN WILL SUPPORT MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE GULF BASIN. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: WEIGHTED GLOBAL MODEL BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR WINDS. GLOBAL MODEL BLEND AND NWPS FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN ATLC RIDGING AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS MAINLY ACROSS THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THESE WINDS WILL FLUCTUATE DAY TO DAY MAINLY DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION...AND PASSING TROPICAL WAVES. MODERATE TRADES WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE PERIOD. TROPICAL WAVES CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL EXIT THE BASIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE NEXT NOTABLE WAVE WILL NOT ARRIVE INTO THE EASTERN ZONES WEST OF 55W UNTIL MONDAY. THE LACK OF FORCING ACROSS THE BASIN SHOULD LIMIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...EXCEPT FOR ENHANCED CONVECTION NEAR THE EASTERN EXTENSION OF THE E PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH THAT SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: WEIGHTED GLOBAL MODEL BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR WINDS. GLOBAL MODEL BLEND AND NWPS FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA NE TO NEAR BERMUDA WILL CUT OFF OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND DRIFT WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEKEND. A SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND NORTHEASTWARD TO NEAR 30N62W WILL DRIFT WESTWARD WHILE WEAKENING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE AND THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE WESTWARD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...REPLACED BY A BUILDING MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. SURFACE RIDGING WILL BUILD WESTWARD EARLY IN THE WEEK IN THE WAKE OF THE DISSIPATED TROUGH. THIS WILL RESULT IN IMPROVING WEATHER CONDITIONS TO START THE WEEK. THE CURRENT WEAK SURFACE RIDGE PATTERN IS SUPPORTING MAINLY LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SEAS LESS THAN 5 FT N OF 23N. SOUTH OF 23N...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E TO SE WINDS WILL PREVAIL. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK...WINDS TO THE N OF 23N WILL BECOME MODERATE E TO SE. WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA WILL PULSE TO FRESH EACH EVENING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LATTO. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.