000 AGXX40 KNHC 220800 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 359 AM EDT FRI JUL 22 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS AND MWW3 BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE. WEAK HIGH PRES FROM THE ATLC CONTINUES TO EXTEND WESTWARD ACROSS THE NRN GULF WATERS WHILE AT THE UPPER LEVELS BROAD RIDGING COVERS THE JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE GULF. LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND RECENT ASCAT DATA INDICATE THAT THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER SURFACE PRES IN THE SW PORTION OF THE AREA SUPPORTING GENERALLY GENTLE ELY WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN...EXCEPT FOR THE FAR EASTERN PART OF BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WHERE WINDS ARE OF STRONG INTENSITY FROM THE N-NE IN DIRECTION. THE BUOY OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH RECENT ALTIMETER PASSES SHOW SEAS IN THE 1-3 FT RANGE...EXCEPT FOR HIGHER SEAS OF 3-4 FT FROM 22N TO 28N W OF 87W. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR THE HIGH TO REMAIN RATHER WEAK THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH INTERMITTENT WEAK 1017-1019 MB HIGH CELLS FORMING ON THE RIDGE IN THE EASTERN GULF NEAR 27N85W. THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE WRN CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SW CORNER OF THE GULF FRI AND FRI NIGHT. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE SOUTHERN GULF INTO SAT. A THERMAL TROUGH IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL PUSH OFFSHORE INTO THE SW GULF EACH NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS AND MWW3 BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE SURFACE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLC AND LOWER PRES IN NRN PORTIONS OF S AMERICA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN IS MAINTAINING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...AND FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THAT THERE WILL BE VARIATIONS IN COVERAGE OF THESE STRONGER TRADES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WEAKNESSES DEVELOP IN THE ATLC RIDGE. A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS ALONG 87W S OF 22N IS ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS. THE WAVE WILL MOVE INLAND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND CENTRAL AMERICA TONIGHT INTO SAT. A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS ALONG 77W S OF 20N IS MOVING WESTWARD AT THE QUICK PACE OF 20-25 KT. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OBSERVED WITH THIS WAVE BETWEEN EASTERN CUBA AND JAMAICA. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SECTIONS THROUGH SUN. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS AND MWW3 BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR 30N61W TO 28N72W...WHILE A STATIONARY FRONT IS ALONG 31N BETWEEN 62W-73W. THESE FEATURES SLICE THROUGH THE HIGH PRES RIDGE ACROSS THE NRN WATERS. THE RESULT OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WORKING ON INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH HAS PRODUCED INCREASING SCATTERED TSTM ACTIVITY WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING WITHIN 45 NM OF A LINE FROM 28N71W TO 29N67W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE NOTED FROM 26N TO 31N BETWEEN 71W-77W. THE STATIONARY FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH HAVE WEAKENED THE RIDGE FOR THE TIME BEING. THE ASSOCIATED GRADIENT IS ONLY SUPPORTING LIGHT TO GENTLE E-SE WINDS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE BASIN...EXCEPT FOR THE NE PORTION WHERE WINDS ARE LIGHT MAINLY S-SW IN DIRECTION. THE OTHER EXCEPTION IS IN THE AREA BETWEEN THE SE BAHAMAS AND HISPANIOLA WHERE E WINDS THERE ARE IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE. BOTH BUOY AND ALTIMETER DATA SHOW SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 4-5 FT E OF THE BAHAMAS...AND 1-2 FT SW OF THE BAHAMAS...AND ALSO N OF 27N W OF 81W. A SMALL POCKET OF SEAS IN THE 5-6 FT RANGE ARE BETWEEN THE SE BAHAMAS AND HISPANIOLA. THE SEAS E OF THE BAHAMAS ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY N OF ABOUT 25N THROUGH MON AS THE WRN SEGMENT OF THE HIGH PRES RIDGING IN PLACE BREAKS DOWN WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH DRIFTING IN A SW DIRECTION THROUGH SUN NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A CLOSED UPPER LOW JUST N OF THE BAHAMAS AND TRACK W TO E CENTRAL FL ALSO BY SUN NIGHT. DAILY PULSING OF FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA WILL CONTINUE DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS THROUGH TUE. WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ON SUN NIGHT...THE ATLC RIDGE WILL THEN BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED ROUGHLY ALONG A PSN FROM 28N65W NW TO NE FL BY TUE NIGHT. THE FLOW PATTERN S OF THE RIDGE WILL BECOME E-SE WITH WINDS IN THE GENTLE TO MODERATE RANGE...EXCEPT FOR THE STRONGER PULSING WINDS BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND HISPANIOLA. THE NRN EXTENSION OF THE CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 77W WILL PASS JUST TO THE S OF THE CUBA THROUGH SUN. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS NEAR THE NRN TIP OF THE WAVE ARE OVER AND NEAR ERN CUBA. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD IN TANDEM WITH THE WAVE. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.