000 AGXX40 KNHC 211845 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 245 PM EDT THU JUL 21 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND. HIGH CONFIDENCE. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NE GULF AND SOME COMPARATIVELY LOWER SURFACE PRESSURE IN THE SW CORNER OF THE AREA ARE SUPPORTING GENTLE EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN WEAK AND IT WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THROUGH SAT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING WESTWARD FROM THE ATLC WILL STRENGTHEN THE RIDGE IN THE NORTHERN GULF SUN THROUGH TUE. THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SW CORNER OF THE AREA ON FRI AND FRI NIGHT. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE SOUTHERN GULF INTO SAT. A THERMAL TROUGH IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL PUSH OFFSHORE INTO THE SW GULF EACH NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN AND LOWER PRESSURE IN NORTHERN PARTS OF SOUTH AMERICA MAINTAINS MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA AND FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THAT THERE WILL BE VARIATIONS IN COVERAGE OF THESE STRONGER TRADES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WEAKNESSES DEVELOP IN THE ATLC OCEAN RIDGE. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 82W/83W IN THE W CARIBBEAN SEA WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA TONIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT. A TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA HAS WEAKENED THE RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS, AND IT HAS USHERED IN LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS IN THE PART OF THE REGION THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 24N. THE SEAS WILL DIMINSH STEADILY DURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS IN RESPONSE TO THE WEAKER TRADES AS THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC OCEAN SHIFTS EASTWARD. DAILY PULSING OF FRESH E WINDS ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WILL WEAKEN BUT CONTINUE THROUGH SAT EVEN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. EXPECT A RIDGE TO REDEVELOP ALONG 29N/30N ON SUNDAY AND EXTEND WESTWARD TO NORTHERN FLORIDA. THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF A TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE WILL BRUSH PAST THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS DURING THIS WEEKEND. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER MT. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.