000 AGXX40 KNHC 201820 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 220 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: WEIGHTED GLOBAL MODEL BLEND FOR WINDS. GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS BLENDED WITH NWPS FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER TEXAS/LOUISIANA WILL DRIFT EASTWARD...JUST INLAND OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS. GENERALLY MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO THE SOUTH OF THIS HIGH THROUGH FRIDAY. THE HIGH IS THEN FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN GENTLE WINDS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF AND MAINLY MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE MAIN EXCEPTION TO THIS WIND PATTERN WILL BE A THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE YUCATAN THAT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE INTO THE SW GULF EACH NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS. DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE GULF IS FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS TO GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE COMBINED WITH PERIODIC WEAK TROUGHS PROPAGATING OVER THE GULF BASIN...AS WELL AS TROPICAL WAVES PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE BASIN WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE SOUTHERN GULF WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH ACTIVITY INCREASING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GULF FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: WEIGHTED GLOBAL MODEL BLEND FOR WINDS. GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS BLENDED WITH NWPS FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND LOW PRES OVER NORTHERN S AMERICA WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LOCALLY STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COASTS OF COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODELS INDICATE THERE WILL BE VARIATIONS IN COVERAGE OF THESE STRONGER TRADES OVER THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS WEAKNESSES DEVELOP IN THE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC. ELSEWHERE...MAINLY MODERATE TRADES ARE EXPECTED. A PAIR OF TROPICAL WAVES WILL CROSS THE CARIBBEAN THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH THE WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXITING THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN OVER CENTRAL AMERICA THURSDAY. THE WAVE CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ON THURSDAY...AND THEN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ON FRIDAY. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: WEIGHTED GLOBAL MODEL BLEND FOR WINDS. GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS BLENDED WITH NWPS FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OUR NORTHWESTERN WATERS TONIGHT AND ENTER THE NORTHWESTERN WATERS THURSDAY...BEFORE STALLING OUT AND DISSIPATING ON SATURDAY. A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE FORM OF A SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE BAHAMAS AND NORTHEASTWARD IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS TROUGH WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR FORECAST WATERS MAINLY WEST OF 65W. THIS TROUGH IS THEN FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING BACK WESTWARD ACROSS THE SW N ATLC. TROPICAL WAVES PROPAGATING WESTWARD MAY INCREASE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG AND WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE DISRUPTION IN THE RIDGE PATTERN DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN MAINLY GENTLE WINDS ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THE TROUGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH MODERATE TO FRESH EAST TO SOUTHEAST TRADES SE OF THE TROUGH. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST EACH LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE LATE EVENING ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LATTO. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.