000 AGXX40 KNHC 200647 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 247 AM EDT WED JUL 19 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THIS MORNING WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH SUN AS THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC SHIFTS EASTWARD. LATEST BUOY AND ALTIMETER DATA SHOW AND AREA OF 5 FT SEAS IN THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 26N. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS OVER MOST OF THE BASIN. A THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE YUCATAN WILL PUSH OFFSHORE INTO THE SW GULF EACH NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND LOW PRES OVER NORTHERN S AMERICA IS GENERATING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN BASED ON LATEST ASCAT DATA. HIGHEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE COASTS OF COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA...AND MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE AREA OF 20-25 KT WINDS WILL FLUCTUATE SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS IN RESPONSE TO THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH RECEDING EASTWARD AND A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 73W MOVING WESTWARD. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE ATLC NEAR 48W WILL REACH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS THU. OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED TO THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN THIS WEEK. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 77W IS ENHANCING SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE BAHAMAS. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NW TOWARD S FLORIDA AND WEAKEN THROUGH THU. A RIDGE AXIS JUST N OF THE AREA ALONG 32N WILL WEAKEN TODAY THROUGH SUN AS THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC SHIFTS EASTWARD. THIS WILL CAUSE WIND SPEEDS AND DIRECTIONS TO BECOME VARIABLE LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD N OF 26N AS MINOR TRANSITORY FEATURES PLAY A LARGER ROLE IN THE ABSENCE OF A COHERENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION. WIND SPEEDS WILL TREND TOWARD 5-10 KT OVER NORTHERN WATERS AND 10-15 KT OVER SOUTHERN WATERS BY THU. SEA HEIGHTS WILL EXPERIENCE A CORRESPONDING DROP OF 1-3 FT FROM CURRENT LEVELS. DAILY PULSING OF FRESH E WINDS ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WILL DIMINISH WEAKEN BUT CONTINUE THROUGH SAT EVEN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.