000 AGXX40 KNHC 191813 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 213 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED THEN WEAKEN SLIGHTLY WED NIGHT THROUGH SUN AS THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC SHIFTS EASTWARD. LATEST BUOY AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS FROM THE NORTHEASTERN GULF INDICATE WIND SPEEDS WITHIN THE BAND OF FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG E WINDS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA ARE BEGINNING TO DECREASE WITH SEAS W OF THE STRAITS SUBSIDING AROUND 1 FOOT. ELSEWHERE...A THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE YUCATAN WILL PUSH OFFSHORE INTO THE SW GULF EACH NIGHT. THE MOST ROBUST EVENT IS EXPECTED TO BE THE ONE FOR TONIGHT...WHEN FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM 20N TO 22N BETWEEN 90W AND 92W. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN A RIDGE N OF THE AREA AND LOW PRES OVER NORTHERN S AMERICA IS GENERATING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGHEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR THE COASTS OF COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA. A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN NEAR PUERTO RICO WILL MOVE INTO THE W CARIBBEAN THU. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE ATLC NEAR 44W IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ON FRI. OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED TO THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN THIS WEEK. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS BRINGING AN INCREASE IN SHOWER COVERAGE TO THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NW AND REACH THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON THU. OTHERWISE...A RIDGE AXIS IS ALIGNED JUST N OF THE AREA ALONG 31N-32N. THE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH WED...THEN WEAKEN AS THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC SHIFTS EASTWARD. THIS WILL CAUSE WIND SPEEDS AND DIRECTIONS TO BECOME VARIABLE LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD N OF 26N AS MINOR TRANSITORY FEATURES PLAY A LARGER ROLE IN THE ABSENCE OF A COHERENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION...AS IS THE CASE AT PRESENT. WIND SPEEDS WILL TREND TOWARD 5-10 KT OVER NORTHERN WATERS AND 10-15 KT OVER SOUTHERN WATERS BY THU. SEA HEIGHTS WILL EXPERIENCE A CORRESPONDING DROP OF 1-3 FT FROM CURRENT LEVELS. THE DAILY PULSING OF FRESH E WINDS ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WILL DIMINISH IN INTENSITY BUT CONTINUE THU THROUGH SAT AS THE HIGH WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER MCELROY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.