000 AGXX40 KNHC 181848 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 248 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A PERSISTENT RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ALONG 30N WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH FRI. A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE YUCATAN EACH EVENING THROUGH WED...THEN PUSH OFFSHORE INTO THE SW GULF AT NIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL INDUCE A BRIEF SURGE OF FRESH NE WINDS WHICH WILL BUILD MAX SEAS TO AROUND 5 FT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT GENTLE TO MODERATE E-SE WINDS DURING THE PERIOD. SEAS 4 FT OR LESS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-7 FT IN THE E GULF TUE INCLUDING THE STRAITS OF FL UNDER LONG DURATION OF FRESH EASTERLY WINDS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL SUBSIDE TUE NIGHT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A PERSISTENT RIDGE N OF THE AREA IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE FRESH WINDS MAINLY ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA AS NOTED IN EARLIER ASCAT DATA. AN AREA OF HIGHER WIND SPEEDS...IN THE STRONG RANGE...IS NOTED IN THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 78W-82W AS WAS CAPTURED BY THE 1428Z ASCAT PASS. THESE WINDS ARE BEING INDUCED DUE TO THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT THERE BETWEEN THE EASTERN END OF THE E PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH...AND THE HIGH PRES RIDGE ACROSS THE ATLC. SEAS THERE ARE ROUGHLY IN THE 8-10 FT RANGE AND 7-9 FT IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE ASCAT DATA ALONG WITH BUOYS SHOWS MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 82W/83W WILL MOVE INLAND ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA BY THIS EVENING. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC ALONG 55W/56W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE THE TROPICAL N ATLC THROUGH TUE EVENING...THEN ENTER THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN EARLY ON WED. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REST OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH EARLY ON THU...ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FRI AND FRI NIGHT AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SAT AND SAT NIGHT. A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 66W N OF 15N WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN WATERS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...AND OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TUE AND TUE NIGHT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A RIDGE AXIS ALONG 31N WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE IN THE BASIN. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL S OF 29N WHILE LIGHT TO GENTLE E-SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS. PERIODS OF FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA DURING LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THROUGH FRI. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 8 FT ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEK. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 71W/72W S OF 28N WILL CONTINUE MOVING NW REACHING THE NW BAHAMAS BY WED EVENING. THE TROUGH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ033...CARIBBEAN S OF 15N BETWEEN 64W AND 72W INCLUDING VENEZUELA BASIN... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.