000 AGXX40 KNHC 171834 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 234 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A PERSISTENT RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH FRI...AND IT WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE YUCATAN DURING THE EVENING THEN PUSH OFFSHORE INTO THE SW GULF AT NIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL INDUCE A BRIEF SURGE OF FRESH NE WINDS WHICH WILL BUILD MAX SEAS TO AROUND 5 FT. OTHERWISE... EXPECT GENTLE TO MODERATE E-SE WINDS DURING THE PERIOD. SEAS 4 FT OR LESS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH MON NIGHT. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 4-6 FT IN THE E GULF TUE INCLUDING THE STRAITS OF FL UNDER LONG DURATION OF FRESH EASTERLY WINDS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A PERSISTENT RIDGE N OF THE AREA IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N OF COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN...AND GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ELSEWHERE. A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS ALONG 78W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH EARLY TUE BEFORE MOVING INLAND CENTRAL AMERICA TUE AFTERNOON. THE GRADIENT BEHIND THE WAVE HAS INCREASED ALLOWING FOR FRESH TO STRONG TRADES TO EXTEND NORTHWARD TO 17N BETWEEN 69W-80W. THESE WINDS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE MON THROUGH TUE EVENING AS THE WAVE ADVANCES WESTWARD. SEAS OF 8-9 FT WITHIN THE AREA OF TRADES WILL BUILD TO 11 FT ON MON ...SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY MON AFTERNOON...BUILD TO 10 FT EARLY ON TUE AND SUBSIDE TO AROUND 8 FT TUE NIGHT AND WED. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 55W THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC THROUGH EARLY ON MON...THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN DURING REST OF MON AND MON NIGHT...THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TUE THROUGH WED AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THU. A SURGE OF STRONG E WINDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS WED WITH SEAS OF 8 FT. THESE WINDS DIMINISH WED NIGHT WITH SEAS OF 6- 8 FT IN NE SWELL LINGERING INTO THU WITH WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THESE SEAS SUBSIDE TO 6 FT BY THU EVENING. ELSEWHERE...LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED FROM THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A RIDGE AXIS ALONG 30N REMAINS THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE IN THE BASIN. THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL S OF 28N WHILE LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS. PERIODS OF FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA DURING LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THROUGH FRI. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 8 FT ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEK. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.