000
AGXX40 KNHC 170600
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN JUL 17 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A PERSISTENT RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THU...AND IT WILL SLOWLY LIFT
NORTHWARD THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE YUCATAN DURING THE EVENING THEN PUSH OFFSHORE INTO THE
SW GULF AT NIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL INDUCE A BRIEF SURGE OF FRESH
NE WINDS WHICH WILL BUILD MAX SEAS TO AROUND 5 FT. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT GENTLE TO MODERATE E-SE WINDS DURING THE PERIOD. SEAS 4
FT OR LESS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH MON NIGHT.
SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 4-6 FT IN THE E GULF TUE INCLUDING
THE STRAITS OF FL UNDER LONG DURATION OF FRESH EASTERLY WINDS.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A PERSISTENT RIDGE N OF THE AREA IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N OF COLOMBIA AND
VENEZUELA. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES IN
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN...AND GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS
ELSEWHERE. A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS ALONG 76W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE W
CARIBBEAN THROUGH TUE. THE GRADIENT E OF THE WAVE WILL ALLOW THE
FRESH TO STRONG TRADES TO EXPAND NORTHWARD TO NEAR 17N TODAY AND
SPREAD WESTWARD TO THE COAST OF NICARAGUA MON THEN DIMINISH TUE.

AS STATED IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED FROM
THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. 
 
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A RIDGE AXIS ALONG 30N REMAINS THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE IN
THE BASIN. THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL
S OF 28N WHILE LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE RIDGE
AXIS ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS. PERIODS OF FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA DURING LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THROUGH THU. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW 8 FT ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEK.
 
$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.