000 AGXX40 KNHC 161845 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 245 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A PERSISTENT RIDGE IS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THU...AND IT WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD BEGINNING ON SUN NIGHT. A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE YUCATAN DURING THE EVENING THEN PUSH OFFSHORE INTO THE SW GULF AT NIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL INDUCE A BRIEF SURGE OF FRESH NE WINDS WHICH WILL BUILD MAX SEAS TO AROUND 5 FT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT GENTLE TO MODERATE E-SE WINDS DURING THE PERIOD. SEAS LESS THAN 4 FT WILL CONTINUE ENTIRE GULF THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION IN THE STRAITS OF FL WHERE SEAS WILL BE 3-4 FT THROUGH SUN. AFTER SUN...SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 4-6 FT IN THE ENTIRE E GULF SECTION INCLUDING THE STRAITS OF FL UNDER LONG DURATION OF THE FRESH E WINDS THERE. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A PERSISTENT RIDGE N OF THE AREA IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS ARE IN THE USUAL FAVORED LOCATION IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N OF COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA. THE 1510Z ASCAT PASS HIGHLIGHTED AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE TRADES IN THE SW PORTION OF THE SEA FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 74W-80W. THE ASCAT ALONG WITH BUOY OBSERVATIONS DEPICT MODERATE TO FRESH NE-E WINDS ELSEWHERE WITH SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 5-6 FT...EXCEPT FOR HIGHER SEAS OF 6-8 FT WITHIN THE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES. A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS ANALYZED NEAR 70W S OF 1N AT 18Z MOVING W AT ABOUT 17 KT. THE WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TONIGHT THROUGH MON...AND ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. WITH PASSAGE OF THE WAVE...THE GRADIENT IN ITS WAKE WILL TIGHTENED ALLOWING FOR THE FRESH TO STRONG TRADES TO EXPAND N TO NEAR 17N AND WESTWARD TO NEAR 80W IN COVERAGE ON SUN. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD WESTWARD TO THE COAST OF NICARAGUA MON BEFORE DIMINISHING ON TUE. BY TUE AFTERNOON...THE FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WILL BE CONFINED TO THE S CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN...AND CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THU. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 9-10 FT MON FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 75W- 80W...THEN SUBSIDE TO 8 FT MON NIGHT. AS STATED IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED FROM THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A RIDGE AXIS ALONG 29N/30N REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE BASIN. THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH THU THIS WEEKEND...REACHING 32-33N BY MON. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL S OF 28N WHILE LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS. FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA DURING LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BELOW 8 FT ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEK. AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH IN THE VICINITY OF THE SE BAHAMAS S OF 27N WILL WESTWARD THROUGH WED...BUT HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON WINDS AND SEAS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.