000
AGXX40 KNHC 160641
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
241 AM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A PERSISTENT RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THU...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE YUCATAN DURING THE EVENING THEN PUSH OFFSHORE INTO THE SW
GULF AT NIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL INDUCE A BRIEF SURGE OF FRESH NE
WINDS WHICH WILL BUILD MAX SEAS TO AROUND 5 FT. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT GENTLE TO MODERATE E-SE WINDS AND SEAS LESS THAN 4 FT TO
CONTINUE SEVERAL MORE DAYS.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A PERSISTENT RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS ARE
IN THE USUAL FAVORED LOCATION IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N
OF COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA. FRESH TRADES ARE OBSERVED IN THE FAR
SE CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING E OF A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS ALONG 67W.
THE TRADES WILL EXPAND TO 17N TONIGHT AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
BEHIND THE WAVE WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN
74W-76W...THEN SUBSIDE TO 8 FT SUN AFTERNOON. THE WAVE WILL MOVE
INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUN AND REACH THE W CARIBBEAN MON.

AS STATED IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED FROM
THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. 
 
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A RIDGE AXIS ALONG 29N REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN
ACROSS THE BASIN. THE RIDGE WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD THIS WEEKEND...
REACHING 32-33N BY SUN EVENING. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL S OF 28N WHILE LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS. FRESH E
WINDS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA DURING
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THROUGH MON NIGHT. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO BELOW 8 FT ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEK. AN INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD S OF 28N MON THROUGH
WED...BUT HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON WINDS AND SEAS.
 
$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.