000 AGXX40 KNHC 151852 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 252 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A PERSISTENT RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH WED...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE YUCATAN DURING THE EVENING THEN PUSH OFFSHORE INTO THE SW GULF AT NIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL INDUCE A BRIEF SURGE OF FRESH NE WINDS WHICH WILL BUILD MAX SEAS TO AROUND 5 FT. OTHERWISE... EXPECT GENTLE TO MODERATE E-SE WINDS AND SEAS LESS THAN 4 FT TO CONTINUE SEVERAL MORE DAYS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A PERSISTENT RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS ARE IN THE USUAL FAVORED LOCATION IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N OF COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA. NE FRESH TO STRONG TRADES IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WILL SPREAD SOME TO THE W OVER THE FAR SE CARIBBEAN THROUGH EARLY ON SAT AS THE TROPICAL WAVE PRESENTLY WITH AXIS ALONG 61W CONTINUES TO ADVANCE WESTWARD AROUND 15 KT. IN THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN... THE TRADES WILL EXPAND N TO 17N BY LATE SAT NIGHT AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTEN IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 10 FT FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W. THESE SEAS SUBSIDE TO 8-9 FT SUN AFTERNOON. THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH SAT NIGHT...THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUN AND SUN NIGHT AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA MON THROUGH TUE NIGHT. AS STATED IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED FROM THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A RIDGE AXIS ALONG 28-29N REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE BASIN AS DEPICTED IN THE 1526Z ASCAT PASS. THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD THIS WEEKEND...REACHING 32-33N BY SUN EVENING. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL S OF 28N WHILE LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS. FRESH E WINDS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA DURING LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THROUGH MON NIGHT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW 8 FT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WED. A WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM E TO W S OF 28N MON THROUGH WED...BUT IS EXPECTED TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACTS ON WINDS AND SEAS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.