000
AGXX40 KNHC 150555
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
155 AM EDT FRI JUL 15 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A PERSISTENT RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH WED...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE YUCATAN DURING THE EVENING THEN PUSH OFFSHORE INTO THE SW
GULF AT NIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL INDUCE A BRIEF SURGE OF FRESH NE
WINDS WHICH WILL BUILD MAX SEAS TO AROUND 5 FT. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT GENTLE TO MODERATE E-SE WINDS AND SEAS LESS THAN 4 FT TO
CONTINUE SEVERAL MORE DAYS.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A PERSISTENT RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS ARE
IN THE USUAL FAVORED LOCATION IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N
OF COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA. THE AERIAL COVERAGE OF THE FRESH TO
STRONG TRADES IN THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN WILL INCREASE SUN NIGHT
AS A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 55W APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MOVES MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND THE ATLC HIGH NE OF
AREA STRENGTHENS. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH THE E CARIBBEAN
LATE TONIGHT...MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THIS WEEKEND
AND REACH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN EARLY MON. WITH LITTLE CHANGE
EXPECTED FROM THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN...MARINE CONDITIONS
IN THE NEAR FUTURE SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO CURRENT LEVELS THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.
 
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A RIDGE AXIS ALONG 28-29N REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE BASIN. THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD
THIS WEEKEND...REACHING 32-33N BY SUN EVENING. MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL S OF 28N WHILE LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS NORTHERN
WATERS. FRESH E WINDS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF
HISPANIOLA DURING LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THROUGH MON
NIGHT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW 8 FT ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH WED.
 
$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.