000 AGXX40 KNHC 140718 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 318 AM EDT THU JUL 14 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. SO...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE MARINE CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUN. A SURFACE HIGH WILL MEANDER OVER THE E-CENTRAL GULF WATERS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD TO THE COAST OF TEXAS. EXPECT MAINLY MODERATE RETURN FLOW AND SEAS OF 3-5 FT ACROSS THE NW AND WEST-CENTRAL WATERS DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER TEXAS AND NE MEXICO. LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND SEAS OF 1-3 FT ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE AROUND THE HIGH AND ASSOCIATED RIDGE. THIS HIGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY FRI THROUGH SUN. BY MON...GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE REGION AS THE RIDGE MOVES NORTHWARD AND A HIGH PRES SETTLES OVER THE SE CONUS. A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE INTO THE SW GULF EACH NIGHT. A SURGE OF FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH THAT WILL LOSE IDENTITY OVER THE SW GULF BY LATE MORNING. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE AERIAL EXTENT AND STRENGTH OF THE TRADES HAS DIMINISHED COMPARED WITH THE PREVIOUS DAYS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC RIDGE AND LOW PRESSURE OVER COLOMBIA RELAXES SOME. HOWEVER...FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH SEAS OF 8-9 FT. THE AERIAL COVERAGE OF THE FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY SUN AS A NEW TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND THE ATLC HIGH PRES LOCATED NE OF AREA STRENGTHENS. THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASS SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE OVERNIGHT. WINDS ARE FORECAST BY THE COMPUTER MODELS TO INCREASE AGAIN ACROSS THIS AREA BY MON NIGHT. TROPICAL N ATLC...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS AND SEAS GENERALLY LESS THAN 8 FT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED EAST OF AREA ALONG 49W/50W WILL REACH THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC ZONE BY LATE TODAY...AND MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY LATE FRI. MARINE GUIDANCE INDICATES SEAS BRIEFLY BUILDING TO AROUND 8 FT IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE ACROSS FORECAST ZONE AMZ037 BY EARLY FRI. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. AN E TO W RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 28N/29N REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE BASIN. A SURFACE HIGH OF 1021 MB IS ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS NEAR 29N73W. THE HIGH WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE N WATERS THROUGH FRI. THEN...THE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHWARD DURING THE WEEKEND REACHING 32N/33N BY SUNDAY. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL S OF 27N WHILE LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED N OF 27N THROUGH LATE FRI THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF THE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS. EXPECT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA...INCLUDING THE NORTHERN APPROACH TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...DURING LATE AFTERNOON INTO LATE EVENING HOURS THROUGH MON NIGHT. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 8 FT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.