000 AGXX40 KNHC 131754 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 154 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ----------------------------------------------------------------- PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS FOR WINDS. LOCAL NWPS FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE EASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL. A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH EVENING AND DISSIPATE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF WATERS DURING THE MORNING HOURS. WINDS WITH THIS TROUGH WILL REACH UP TO STRONG BREEZE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 8 FT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS FOR WINDS. LOCAL NWPS FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC RIDGE AND LOW PRESSURE OVER COLOMBIA WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN...EXCEPT INCREASING TO NEAR GALE FORCE ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE ALSO EXPECTED NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THIS MORNING WHICH SHOULD SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON. A TOPEX ALTIMETER PASS AROUND 11Z THIS MORNING INDICATED PEAK WAVE HEIGHTS OF 10-11 FT. A JUST ARRIVING RAPIDSCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS FROM 1538Z INDICATED PEAK WINDS NORTH OF COLOMBIA OF 25-30 KT. SO THE GALE WARNING WILL BE DROPPED WITH THE 18Z HIGH SEAS FORECAST. SEAS WILL DIMINISH SOME AFTER TODAY...BUT STILL WILL BE CAUSING 8-9 FT SEAS DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS NORTH OF COLOMBIA THROUGH SUNDAY. A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED EAST OF AREA WITH AXIS NEAR 47W WILL REACH THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC ZONE BY FRIDAY MORNING...AND MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE WAVE WILL HAVE LITTLE NOTICEABLE EFFECT ON WINDS OR SEAS. IN THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC ZONES...WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW STRONG BREEZE CONDITIONS AND SEAS BELOW 8 FT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS FOR WINDS. LOCAL NWPS MODEL FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. AN EAST TO WEST SURFACE RIDGE IN THE VICINITY OF 28N WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHWARD TO 33N BY SUNDAY NIGHT. MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE TRADEWINDS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL. EXPECT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA... INCLUDING THE NORTHERN APPROACH TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...DURING LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 8 FT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LANDSEA. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.