000 AGXX40 KNHC 130719 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 319 AM EDT WED JUL 13 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN AND MARINE CONDITIONS IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE INTO THE SW GULF EACH NIGHT. A SURGE OF FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH THAT WILL LOSE IDENTITY OVER THE SW GULF BY LATE MORNING. A RECENT ASCAT PASS SHOWED THE WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH. A SURFACE HIGH WILL MEANDER OVER THE E-CENTRAL GULF WATERS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD TO THE COAST OF TEXAS. EXPECT MAINLY MODERATE RETURN FLOW AND SEAS OF 3-5 FT ACROSS THE NW AND WEST-CENTRAL WATERS DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER TEXAS AND NE MEXICO. LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND SEAS OF 1-3 FT ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE AROUND THE HIGH AND ASSOCIATED RIDGE. THIS HIGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY FRI THROUGH SUN. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLC COMBINED WITH THE COLOMBIAN/PANAMANIAN LOW WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...EXCEPT INCREASING TO NEAR GALE FORCE ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH EARLY THU. A PAIR OF SCATTEROMETER PASSES REVEALED TRADE WINDS IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITHIN ABOUT 90 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...SO THE DECISION WAS MADE...AND A GALE WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR FREQUENT GUSTS TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING. SEAS WILL BE UP TO 11-13 FT DURING THE STRONGEST WINDS. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. A TROPICAL WAVE HAS JUST MOVED INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. MAINLY EASTERLY FRESH WINDS ARE NOTED BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS...PARTICULARLY S OF 18N W OF 87W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH TONIGHT...AND AGAIN SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT. TROPICAL N ATLC...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH SEAS GENERALLY LESS THAN 8 FT. A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED E OF AREA WITH AXIS ALONG 45W WILL REACH THE TROPICAL N ATLC BY LATE THU...AND MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY LATE FRI. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. AN E TO W RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 28N/29N REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE BASIN. A SURFACE HIGH OF 1021 MB IS ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS NEAR 29N74W. THE HIGH WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE N WATERS THROUGH FRI. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS HIGH...LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SEAS OF 3-4 FT WILL DOMINATE THE WATERS N OF 25N WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS OF 4-6 FT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 25N E OF THE BAHAMAS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS BETWEEN THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE COAST OF HISPANIOLA...INCLUDING THE APPROACH TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...DURING THE LATE AFTERNOONS INTO THE LATE EVENINGS EACH DAY. THESE CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY SPREADING INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...AND ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR AGAIN THIS EVENING. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 5-7 FT WITH THESE WINDS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.