000 AGXX40 KNHC 121721 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 121 PM EDT TUE JUL 12 2016 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN AND MARINE CONDITIONS IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE INTO THE SW GULF EACH NIGHT. A SURGE OF FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH THAT WILL LOSE IDENTITY BY LATE NIGHT. A SURFACE HIGH WILL MEANDER OVER THE E-CENTRAL GULF WATERS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD TO THE COAST OF TEXAS. EXPECT MAINLY MODERATE RETURN FLOW AND SEAS OF 3-5 FT ACROSS THE NW AND WEST-CENTRAL WATERS DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER TEXAS AND NE MEXICO. LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND SEAS OF 1-3 FT ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE AROUND THE HIGH AND ASSOCIATED RIDGE. THIS HIGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY FRI THROUGH SUN. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLC COMBINED WITH THE COLOMBIAN/PANAMANIAN LOW WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...EXCEPT INCREASING TO NEAR GALE FORCE ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH EARLY THU. MODEL GUIDANCE NOW INDICATES A BRIEF SURGE OF 35 KT WINDS LATE WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU AND A GALE WARNING MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED IF THE NEXT MODEL RUN OR TWO CONTINUES THIS TREND. SEAS WILL BE UP TO 11-13 FT DURING THE STRONGEST WINDS. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT BECOMING BRIEFLY STRONG ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WED. A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS ALONG 84W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH TONIGHT. THE WAVE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY AND GUSTY WINDS. THIS WAVE IS ENHANCING THE TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. TROPICAL N ATLC...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH SEAS GENERALLY LESS THAN 8 FT. A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED E OF AREA ALONG 43W WILL REACH THE TROPICAL N ATLC BY LATE THU INTO FRI...AND MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY SAT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. AN E TO W RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 27N/28N REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE BASIN. A SURFACE HIGH OF 1021 MB IS ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS NEAR 28N67W. THE HIGH WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE N WATERS THROUGH FRI. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS HIGH...LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SEAS OF 3-4 FT WILL DOMINATE THE WATERS N OF 27N WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS OF 4-6 FT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 27N E OF THE BAHAMAS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS BETWEEN THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE COAST OF HISPANIOLA...INCLUDING THE APPROACH TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...DURING THE LATE AFTERNOONS INTO THE LATE EVENINGS EACH DAY. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE THIS EVENING AND AGAIN BY WED EVENING. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 5-7 FT WITH THESE WINDS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.